742
FXUS02 KWBC 232000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 26 2026 - 12Z WED SEP 30 2026
...IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM MEANDERS NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...MONSOON STORMS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
...MID-WEEK HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S....
..OVERVIEW
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING, STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION, AS WELL AS
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MAY GENERATE MONSOON STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MID- WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EAST COAST
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE TIMING
OF THE BASE OF A WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH ON DAY 6, WITH THE
EURO/CANADIAN SUITES BEING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS,
WHICH ATTEMPTS TO SPLIT FLOW. THE EXACT TRACK OF HURRICANE POLO IS
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER THERE IS AN INCREASING TREND IN A TRACK CLOSER
TO THE BAJA COAST, WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER QPF MAGNITUDES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC
AND AI GUIDANCE WAS USED ON DAY 3, FOLLOWED BY A DETERMINISTIC/AI
EURO FAVORED BLEND ON DAY 4. AN EVEN SPLIT OF THE DETERMINISTIC/AI
GFS AND EURO WERE USED ON DAY 5 FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ENSEMBLE MEANS ON DAYS 6 AND 7 TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MEANDERING SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO
BROAD ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN COULD LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. SEE WPC'S KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS COASTAL
LOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WEST, BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
NORTHWARD SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY, STRETCHING INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST, AND TRACKING EAST TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME AREAS, WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES WITH THE PRECIPITATION, AS
THE TROUGH ALOFT HELPS TO COOL TEMPERATURES.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE,
AND HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A ROUND OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS WELL. ON
THE OTHER HAND, COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGHS) ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST UNDER TROUGHING ALOFT,
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.
KEBEDE/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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