724
FXUS01 KWBC 232006
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 00Z THU SEP 24 2026 - 00Z SAT SEP 26 2026
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW...
...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SPREADS COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS,
WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK...
THIS AFTERNOON, SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS IN BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND AN UPPER-HIGH
IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN WILL FUEL THE
THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHERE SOME AREAS COULD SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
OF 2-4" ON TOP OF WHAT FELL YESTERDAY. AS SUCH, LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SENSITIVE TERRAIN, URBAN AREAS, AND BURN
SCARS. TOMORROW, RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT,
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CERTAINLY REMAINS POSSIBLE AS
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN ATOP INUNDATED SOILS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE TO
RUNOFF. ACCORDINGLY, FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. FURTHER TO THE EAST, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SLOW-MOVING
STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPIN UP IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A SWATH
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST, INCLUDING
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. COASTAL RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
HEED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS, WARNINGS, AND THE
LATEST WPC KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW, WHICH WILL USHER IN SOAKING RAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE HEARTLAND ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SET IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
ASHERMAN/OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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