055
FXUS01 KWBC 240622
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
VALID 12Z THU SEP 24 2026 - 12Z SAT SEP 26 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...
...DEVELOPING STRONG COASTAL LOW BRINGS COASTAL FLOODING, RIP
CURRENTS, WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND..
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST. LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAS DIMINISHED COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION,
BUT INSTABILITY AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DUE
TO SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED HIGH
RAINFALL RATES, WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD MARGINAL RISK
COVERS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, AN AXIS OF BROAD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND INTO THE MIDWEST, LEADING TO
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MIDWEST. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
OVER EASTERN U.S., A INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND COASTAL AREAS ON
THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE, THE STRONG COASTAL LOW OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BY LATE WEEK AND WILL BRING
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AND BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PROLONGED RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTAL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT WIND
GUST IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH, MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH
SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND BEACH EROSION. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WPC
KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
A STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
FORCING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND GRADUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR, POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CASCADES.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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