567
FXUS06 KWBC 241902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU SEPTEMBER 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 04, 2026
THE PERSISTENT AND UNUSUALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FINALLY STARTED TO WEAKEN THIS WEEK. HOWEVER,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS INTENSE HEAT REMAIN FAVORED FOR
THIS REGION ALONG WITH AREAS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A PREDICTED VARIABLE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
CALIFORNIA.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHICH
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), POWERFUL HURRICANE POLO, IN THE EAST PACIFIC, IS
PREDICTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, IS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND BECOME ENTRAINED INTO A COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FROM
EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50% IN AREAS WHERE THE ECENS DEPICTS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
MORE THAN ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT.
THE PREFERRED ECENS AND CMCE DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW,
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA WITH THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES (> 50%) ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE NOLO IS LIKELY TO BE TRACKING AWAY FROM HAWAII BY DAY
6, HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER AND ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES (> 50%) ARE FORECAST FROM SEP 30-OCT 4. THE GEFS AND ECENS
SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT HAWAII WITH
THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES FORECAST FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS/CMCE AND GEFS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 08 2026
THE ECENS AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONGWAVE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING EARLY OCTOBER, FEATURING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AND A TROUGH OF
MODERATE AMPLITUDE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 7-DAY MEAN HEIGHT
PATTERN FROM THE GEFS IS MORE ZONAL AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH
ONLY MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THIS MODEL SOLUTION IN THE 8-14 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND. THE AMPLIFYING 500-HPA RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN CONUS AND CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS WARMTH EARLY IN WEEK-2. BASED ON
THE PREFERRED ECENS AND CMCE WHICH ARE COOLER THAN THE GEFS, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND AWAY
FROM ANY ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. NHC IS MONITORING THE
FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPAC
WHICH HAS A 80% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) IN THE EAST PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THIS POTENTIAL TC MAY TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY IN WEEK-2 WHICH COULD BRING ENHANCED LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. ALONG AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LARGER (>40%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE PREFERRED
ECENS INDICATE TC GENESIS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EARLY OCTOBER AND
THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
A PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES
(> 50%) ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE GEFS AND ECENS SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFSET BY
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS/CMCE AND GEFS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250913 - 20250921 - 20220904 - 20090912 - 20010927
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250922 - 20250927 - 20250912 - 20250917 - 20220904
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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