593
FXUS02 KWBC 242000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 27 2026 - 12Z THU OCT 01 2026
...NOR'EASTER MEANDERS NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
REACHING THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE LINGERING NEAR THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY-MONDAY BEFORE EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME.
THOUGH THE LOW SHOULD BE WEAKENING, ADDITIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION, AND RIP
CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN IN COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, FOR POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
DAYS OF RAIN/STORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE INTERIOR WEST/FOUR
CORNERS STATES, AND SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND A CUT-OFF LOW SOLUTION AT
THE MID-LEVELS WITH RESPECT TO AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERING THE
WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SUITE DEVIATES FROM CONSENSUS
BY KEEPING A PHASED TROUGH IN THE WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PROPAGATING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID-
WEEK.
THE EURO AND CANADIAN SUITES WERE FAVORED IN TODAY'S MEDIUM RANGE
BLENDS DUE TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON
THE REST OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS SUITE
ATTEMPTS TO KEEP THE TROUGH PHASED AS IT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE
WEST AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN MODEL CONSENSUS, THEREFORE IT
WASN'T INCORPORATED IN THE BLEND.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MEANDERING SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO
BROAD ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT PATTERN COULD LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION, AS WELL AS MARINE HAZARDS LIKE RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE INLAND FLOODING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY. SEE WPC'S KEY MESSAGES
REGARDING THIS COASTAL LOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS
OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MORE BROADLY,
PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WEST, BRINGING RAIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
NORTHWARD SUNDAY-MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND TRACKING
EAST TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
POLO, LEADING TO HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. VULNERABLE SOILS FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. SOME SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES
WITH THE PRECIPITATION, AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND COOLS TEMPERATURES.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE, AND HIGHS IN THE
90S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ON THE OTHER HAND, COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS) ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST UNDER TROUGHING
ALOFT, GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HELPING TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
KEBEDE/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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