103
FXUS01 KWBC 242031
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 25 2026 - 00Z SUN SEP 27 2026
...A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS,
WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND..
...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FROM ARIZONA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LESSEN ON FRIDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WILL INTERACT
WITH A COOL AIR MASS SLIDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
DEVELOP A DEEP COASTAL CYCLONE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.ÂÂTHE COOL AIR WILL BE MOISTENED AND LIFTED BY THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FEEDS THAT
COOL AIR ACROSS THE STILL WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.Â
THE RESULT WILL BE A RATHER STRONG CYCLONE THAT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THIS CYCLONE'S TRACK, BUT MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE
CENTER WILL APPROACH AND THEN STALL JUST OFF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF FRIDAY COULD REMAIN
RAIN FREE ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT COOL AND DAMP NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE.Â
STEADY RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SPREADING GRADUALLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH, MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH SURF,
RIP CURRENTS, AND BEACH EROSION. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WPC KEY
MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE
LIFTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA, BRINGING A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, ALLOWING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.ÂÂFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND
MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD IOWA AND MISSOURI AHEAD
OF A LOW-PRESSURE WAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT.
A STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS WASHINGTON
AND OREGON REACHING THE COAST LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR, WET
SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CASCADES.
KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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