957
FXUS06 KWBC 251912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEPTEMBER 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 01 - 05 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH
AMERICA AND ADJACENT REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DEPICTING A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY, WITH WEAK RIDGING FILLING IN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE
CHANCES EXCEED 80%. ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ENHANCED FOR
CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE GREAT BASIN UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW STEMMING FROM
TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UNDER AND BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ALASKA, THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH RUNS ROUGHLY
NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE, RESULTING IN A SIMILAR SPLIT FOR
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MORE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION KEEP HAWAII
TILTING TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE DEPICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES IS FAVORED TO PRODUCE A
WIDE BAND OF PRECIPITATION, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS WHERE CHANCES
EXCEED 50%. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50% AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TIED TO
TROUGHING IN THE REGION, WHILE PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND ARE FAVORED FOR
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE PACIFIC TROPICS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO FORCING FROM THE BUILDING EL NINO, AND HAWAII REMAINS
FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY A LARGE PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 09 2026
THE OVERALL PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ENSEMBLE
MODEL FORECASTS FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FAVORED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD IN ALL MODEL FORECASTS, EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND GULF OF ALASKA. THE MANUAL BLEND ALSO FEATURES INCREASED POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT COVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND GREAT PLAINS. WEAK NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD MANUAL BLEND, WHILE NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER TROUGHING AND CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONSISTENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, AS A PREDICTED RIDGE PERSISTS WITH
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND ALONG THE EAST COAST, AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, INFLUENCED BY A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR
THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS
IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED BLEND OF FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TIED TO TROUGHING IN THE
REGION, WHILE THE WESTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD IN OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WIDE SPREAD AMONG TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230925 - 20250914 - 20250922 - 20010928 - 20220905
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250913 - 20250922 - 20090911 - 20250927 - 20010927
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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