733
FXUS01 KWBC 260816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 26 2026 - 12Z MON SEP 28 2026
...STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL BRING
COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORâ€EASTER
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS THE NORâ€EASTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NEW
JERSEY COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ON MONDAY.
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY THE
SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, BUT REPEATED ROUNDS OF FLOODING
ARE LIKELY. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IN
LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE SHORE, INCLUDING ROADS UNDERWATER AND
IMPACTS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOREOVER, LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, ROAD
CLOSURES, AND PROPERTY DAMAGE FOR THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE STRONG
NOR'EASTER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST, WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 45-65
MPH FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE IN SOME AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN MAY LEAD TO INLAND FLOODING FROM NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN
SCARS MOST VULNERABLE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WPC KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT
WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD AND MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS MOST VULNERABLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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