196
FXUS06 KWBC 261902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT SEPTEMBER 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 06 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO REINFORCE THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND WEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF CANADA. THE STRENGTHENING
OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS
RIDGE BUILDS, A TROUGH OF MODEST STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST, AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THREE NAMED STORMS (NOLO, ODALYS, AND POLO) AND AN
ADDITIONAL TWO DISTURBANCES WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, THE NHC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR POLO (OR
ITS REMNANTS) TO RECURVE AND APPROACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS EVOLUTION
WOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. MEANWHILE, THE ELEVATED TROPICAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR HAWAII IN
GENERAL BUT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE PERIOD.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOVE 70 PERCENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GREAT BASIN AS THIS RIDGE GAINS
STRENGTH. IN CONTRAST, A REDUCTION IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY DUE TO
INCREASED TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW FAVORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS DUE TO
TRANSIENT RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY MODEST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER PATTERN
ESTABLISHING ITSELF LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LEAN WARM DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN COMBINED
WITH ABOVE NORMAL OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN SURROUNDING
WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII.
AS CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS FOR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE FROM POLO (OR ITS REMNANTS) MAY BECOME
ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE PREDICTED
SYNOPTIC SETUP COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VICINITY. CONVERSELY, AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
GAINS STRENGTH ACROSS THE WEST, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST
OF THE MAINLAND, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER,
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS
OF THE ALEUTIANS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PREDICTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HAWAII ALSO TILTS WET, CONSISTENT WITH AN ACTIVE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 10 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED, CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING OF INCREASED STRENGTH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS,
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN. THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS FAVORED TO REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NOTED IN THE 7 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO PREDICTED EXPANSIVE
RIDGING. AS THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LONG DURATION FEATURE,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE ROCKIES
WESTWARD WITH GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCES EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. CONVERSELY, AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
EAST, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ADJACENT
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS REPRESENTS A REDUCTION IN ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD, WITH ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS NOW RESTRICTED TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH INCREASED
TROUGHING FORECAST, A SMALL AREA OF MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
TIED TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TILT TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS,
CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALSO TILT WARM DUE TO WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN,
WHERE SST ANOMALIES ARE NOT AS ROBUST.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED
PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ROCKIES, CLOSE TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE CENTER.
HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AS TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH OFF THE COAST ARE
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SOUTHEAST, AND GULF
COAST, DUE TO PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, TIED TO POTENTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT TROUGH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS TILT
WET, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII, TIED TO AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED PATTERN, BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH
A POSITIVE PNA.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230926 - 20250914 - 20250922 - 20010928 - 20240927
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250913 - 20250918 - 20230925 - 20010927 - 20090911
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page