301
FXUS01 KWBC 270823
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 27 2026 - 12Z TUE SEP 29 2026
... A STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL
BRING COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY
RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ON MONDAY AND THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY. THE POWERFUL
NORâ€EASTER IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE
AND CONTINUES TO BRING COASTAL IMPACTS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
FURTHERMORE, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE HIGH-TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FOLLOWS PRIOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH AFFECTED NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COASTLINES. IN ADDITION, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH
SURF, AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. MOREOVER, STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM NEW
JERSEY TO LONG ISLAND, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES
AND TREE DAMAGE. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED INLAND
FLOODING FROM NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MONDAY.
ALSO, THE NORâ€EASTER WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES THE MOST
VULNERABLE. THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WANE TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WPC KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT
WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
IN THE MEANTIME, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL STREAM
INTO THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR MONDAY. THE MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXPAND INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES THE MOST VULNERABLE. ADDITIONALLY, A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page