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FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN SEPTEMBER 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE BERING SEA IS THEN
FORECAST TO REINFORCE THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND WEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF CANADA. THE STRENGTHENING
OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS, A TROUGH OF MODEST STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST. TRANSIENT RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT FALLS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING THREE NAMED STORMS (NOLO, ODALYS, AND POLO), A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (EIGHTEEN-E), AND AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, THE NHC IS HIGHLIGHTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR POLO (OR ITS REMNANTS) TO RECURVE AND APPROACH THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY EARLY.
MEANWHILE, THE ELEVATED TROPICAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR HAWAII IN GENERAL. HOWEVER,
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED TO
ABOVE 80 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AS THIS RIDGE GAINS
STRENGTH. IN CONTRAST, A REDUCTION IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY DUE TO
INCREASED TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW FAVORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE ADJACENT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION PRIOR TO THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO TRANSIENT RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY MODEST DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF LATER IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, NEAR THE PREDICTED
TROUGH AXIS. PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LEAN WARM DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL OBSERVED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN SURROUNDING WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE TROPICAL
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII.
AS CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS FOR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO MAY BECOME
ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE PREDICTED
SYNOPTIC SETUP COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF COAST, MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. CONVERSELY, AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GAINS STRENGTH ACROSS THE WEST,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CONUS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN
MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII AS A WETTER PATTERN OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ACTIVE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IS OFFSET BY PREDICTED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED, CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING OF INCREASED STRENGTH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS,
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN. THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS FAVORED TO REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NOTED IN THE 7 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO PREDICTED EXPANSIVE
RIDGING. AS THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LONG DURATION FEATURE,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVERSELY, AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS
THE EAST, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ADJACENT
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH INCREASED TROUGHING FORECAST, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, TIED TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PRIOR TO THE PERIOD. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALSO TILT WARM DUE TO
WIDESPREAD OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC. HOWEVER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN, WHERE SST ANOMALIES ARE NOT AS ROBUST.
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS, CLOSE TO THE PREDICTED
RIDGE CENTER. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH OFF THE
COAST ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SOUTHEAST, AND
EASTERN GULF COAST, DUE TO PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, TIED TO POTENTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC. EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA ARE FAVORED FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT TROUGH. NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED
LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS TILT WET, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII, TIED TO AN ACTIVE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED PATTERN, BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH
A POSITIVE PNA.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230927 - 20250915 - 20240928 - 20211007 - 20250922
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230925 - 20250918 - 20250913 - 20010928 - 20111006
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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