098
FXUS01 KWBC 280808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
VALID 12Z MON SEP 28 2026 - 12Z WED SEP 30 2026
... A STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL
BRING COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY
RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ON MONDAY AND THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...
THE POWERFUL NORâ€EASTER IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NEAR THE NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE AND CONTINUES TO BRING COASTAL IMPACTS AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WPC KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT
WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE POLO WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LIKEWISE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MID-WEEK. LOCALLY, CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHWEST, PARTICULARLY NEAR
BURN SCARS, LOW-WATER CROSSINGS, AND AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN.
LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH RIVER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING IMPACTS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE STARTING MID-WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 3-6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS, IS EXPECTED, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO, AVOID TRAVEL THROUGH ALREADY
FLOODED AND VULNERABLE AREAS. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT. IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODING WHILE DRIVING, â€TURN AROUND, DONâ€T
DROWN.â€
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WPC KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT
WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
ALSO, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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