085
FXUS01 KWBC 291938
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 00Z WED SEP 30 2026 - 00Z FRI OCT 02 2026
...CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AS THE REMNANTS
OF POLO MERGE WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A BROAD AREA OF
FLOOD CONCERNS EXTENDING TO THE GREAT LAKES...
..WARM, DRY WEATHER BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
NOR'EASTER, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO NORTHEASTWARD. SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH A LINE OF HEAVY STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS,
INCLUDING THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. SATURATED SOILS, BURN SCARS,
CANYONS, AND LOW-WATER CROSSINGS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE, WHERE
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS EXIST. WPC HAS A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCLUDING A TARGETED AREA ALONG THE
ARIZONA AND UTAH BORDER. STORMS NEAR THE REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD
ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE PANHANDLES, FINALLY ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THOSE HARD-HIT
AREAS. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
PULL DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODERATE RISKS ARE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND FOR A SLOW-MOVING
LINE OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS. A MODERATE RISK
ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY, THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND
STALL OVER THE PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH. THE MODERATE
RISK THEN SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY,
AND SOUTH TEXAS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, AND FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
IN THE EAST, THE NOR'EASTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND,
ENDING THE RAIN. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE AT HIGH
TIDE ALONG PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVE. IN THE WEST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA.
EOVINO
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