377  
FOUS30 KWBC 301558  
QPFERD  
 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1158 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026  
 
DAY 1  
VALID 16Z WED SEP 30 2026 - 12Z THU OCT 01 2026  
 
...THERE ARE MODERATE RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE CORN BELT...  
   
..FRONT RANGE TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
 
 
16Z UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST MDT RISK AREAS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, RESPECTIVELY. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN TACT WITH OUR  
BROAD ULL CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY BETWEEN THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH THE  
REMNANT ENERGY OF POLO EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACCORDING  
TO THE LATEST WV SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LATEST 500MB  
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM POLO IS  
MIGRATING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE, ACCOMPANIED BY A  
MORE ROBUST MULTI-CELL CLUSTER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPANDING  
THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KS. THE THREAT FOR  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FRONT  
RANGE WITH A TEXTBOOK UPSLOPE PATTERN WITHIN THE SANGRE DE  
CRISTOS, ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING AXIS OF DEFORMATION ON THE  
NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE LEE OF THE  
ROCKIES. EXPECTATION OF THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR  
WITHIN THAT AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HIGHEST  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO, NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM, AND  
THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE. ULL PROGRESSION INTO NM WILL  
EVENTUALLY PIVOT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST LEADING TO ENHANCED UPPER  
ASCENT UNDERNEATH AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GENERAL ULL CENTER,  
COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GENERAL  
1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER IS FORECAST IN THIS ZONE WHICH WHEN COMBINED  
WITH THE PRIMED SOILS FROM THE PAST RAINFALL WOULD PRESENT AN  
OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN AND  
OVERLAPPING ANY AREAS THAT TOOK APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THE PAST 48  
HRS.  
 
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF TX/OK, THE OVERALL SETUP  
REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZING ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT MIGRATING THROUGH WEST TX DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH EAS PROBS (50-90%) FOR >1" ON  
THE LATEST 12Z HREF EXIST FROM THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BIG BEND  
AREA OF TX TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS CENTERED  
OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY, NORTH TX, AND JUST WEST OF THE DFW  
METROPLEX. HREF BLENDED MEAN QPF WAS QUITE ROBUST WITHIN THESE  
ZONES WITH A GENERAL 2-4" WITH THE LOCAL MAXIMA OVER 5". THIS  
SIGNAL IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A MAINTENANCE OF THE PREVIOUS  
MDT RISK WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MATCH THE LATEST  
PROB FIELDS FROM THE 12Z CAMS SUITE.  
 
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..  
 
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE SANGRE DE  
CRISTOS INTO THE SAN JUAN RANGE AS THE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW,  
CREATING AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO PERPETUATE THE RAINFALL OVER  
THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE  
PROSPECTS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT  
MOIST SOILS BROUGHT ABOUT BY PRIOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL, SOME OF  
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THEIR OWN RIGHT, LEADING  
TO A HEIGHTENED PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING GIVEN THE OVERLAPPING  
NATURE OF HEAVY PRECIP. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER,  
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
INTO THE FRONT RANGE AS THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND  
ENHANCED AXIS OF DEFORMATION WILL LEAD TO TWO PRIMARY PERIODS OF  
HEAVY PRECIPITATION; ONCE IN THE MORNING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN IN  
THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFY AND STRONG MID- LEVEL  
VORTICITY ADVECTION PIVOTS AROUND THE ULL CENTER.  
 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM OKLAHOMA DOWN THROUGH TEXAS, THE  
SETUP IS MORE CLASSIC WITH REGARDS TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE ALONG A PROPAGATING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MATERIALIZE  
FROM THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FLOW WILL  
BE FAIRLY MERIDIONAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING MEAN TROUGH/ULL  
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CREATING A BROAD AREA OF  
RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND  
EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EVENING AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY  
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MIGRATES OUT OF THE HIGH  
PLAINS OF TEXAS WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF PRECIP LIKELY  
DEVELOPING FROM THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS DOWN INTO THE LOWER  
TRANS PECOS AND ADJACENT CONCHO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BROADENING CONVECTIVE FOOTPRINT OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP  
TROPICAL MOISTURE PRESENCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL  
PROGRESSION AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A FORMIDABLE 35-45KT LLJ STRUCTURE SITUATED  
FROM THE RGV UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE WARM SECTOR  
MATURATION WILL BE WELL-DEFINED WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION  
POLEWARD UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. MLCAPE BETWEEN  
1500-2500 J/KG BISECTING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WILL  
OFFER PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO COUPLE WITH 30-40KT EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER MESOCYCLONE  
CORES AND MERGING MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS THAT WILL PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN  
FOR A LARGE AREA COME WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS FOR >3" ARE UPWARDS OF 50-80% OVER THE  
AREA FROM THE LOWER TRANS PECOS TO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY  
BETWEEN TX/OK WITH AN AVERAGE OF 40-60% OVER THE ENTIRE STRETCH  
FROM DEL RIO, TEXAS TO JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. THIS IS  
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF HEIGHTENED PROBS FOR 3" WITH MODEST PROBS  
(25-40%) FOR >5" LOCALLY WITH THE BEST SIGNAL OVER THE LOWER TRANS  
PECOS AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND FORT WORTH.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT
 
 
16Z UPDATE: THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED  
MDT RISK ACROSS AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT FOR  
THE D1 PERIOD WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE COURSE  
OF THE LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, CARRYING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD AS THE EVOLUTION EXTENDS HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST  
INTO THE MIDWEST. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOME  
OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF POLO MIGRATING OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE  
WITH SIGHTS ON KS AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE  
A MAJOR PLAYER IN TERM SO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR,  
COUPLED WITH THE ALIGNMENT AND POSITION OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING  
NORTH INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHEASTERN NE. MEAN  
FLOW WILL ALIGN PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITH THE REMNANT ENERGY OF  
POLO LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS IT REACHES  
THE LATITUDE OF I-70. THE OVERLAP OF THE FRONT AND GENERAL  
INSTABILITY MAX BISECTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL  
AID IN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING  
CONVECTION TO BE COMMON OCCURRENCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE A COLD  
FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS EVERYTHING SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING.  
 
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR >3" ARE GAUDY, TO SAY THE LEAST, WITH  
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS BETWEEN 70-90+% LOCATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS UP  
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO WESTERN IA, BISECTING BOTH THE  
OMAHA AND DES MOINES AREAS IN THE SPATIAL REPRESENTATION. THE >5"  
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO VERY NOTEWORTHY WITH A SOLID 40-70%  
NEIGHBORHOOD AREA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE FOCAL  
POINT CENTERED OVER OMAHA AND AREAS JUST SOUTH. THIS SIGNAL HAS  
BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAMS SUITE THIS MORNING, AND HAS  
MERIT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE PROBS FROM EVERY THE GLOBAL ENS OUTPUTS  
THE PAST 24 HRS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR AN APPRECIABLE FLASH FLOOD  
SCENARIO FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN  
2-4", LOCAL TO 6" WILL BE COMMON WITHIN AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 50  
MILES EAST OF GOODLAND, KS TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF DES  
MOINES WITH THE MAX LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NE. THE  
MDT RISK WAS MAINTAINED WITH NOW A HIGH-END SLGT FORECAST FOR THE  
AREA COMPRISED OF NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF KS UP  
THROUGH SOUTHEAST NE, INCLUDING THE OMAHA AREA, AND WESTERN IA.  
 
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..  
 
A MATURE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A  
PROGRESSIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RAINFALL FROM ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALREADY BE  
OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, BUT LIMITED  
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN MORE "SUBDUED" RATES THAT ARE COINCIDENT  
WITH MORE APPRECIABLE FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS. PW ANOMALIES OF +2 TO  
+3 DEVIATIONS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION CREATING A  
FORMIDABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE TO COUPLE WITH THE TALL,  
SKINNY CAPE SIGNATURES EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO  
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IOWA.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ALIGN ALONG A SW-NE AXIS FROM NORTHERN  
KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE  
PLAINS COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO  
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND NEIGHBORING CORN BELT BY  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRAINING OF CELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT IS  
ANTICIPATED AND MOVE NORTHEAST, IN TANDEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY  
FEED INTO THE LIKELY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MIGRATING ALONG THE FRONT  
FROM NORTH- CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, EVENTUALLY  
MAKING HEADWAY INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AFTER NIGHTFALL. HOURLY  
RAINFALL RATES ARE DEPICTED TO REACH BETWEEN 1-2"/HR IN THE  
STRONGEST CELL CORES WITH SOME REPEATING ACTION ALONG THE WARM  
FRONT. ROBUST SIGNALS IN THE DETERMINISTIC CAMS AND ASSOCIATED  
HREF BLENDED MEAN QPF OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS A GENERAL 2-4", LOCALLY AS  
HIGH AS 6" OVER THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
THE MOST NOTABLE AREA WAS THAT CORRIDOR FROM THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA  
BORDER UP THROUGH OMAHA OVER INTO DES MOINES WITH A HIGHER QPF  
FOOTPRINT SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A  
SHARP CUTOFF IN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS NORTH OF  
THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS OF  
THE THREAT OF THE HIGHER RATES COINCIDENT WITH FLASH FLOODING.  
 
KLEEBAUER  
 
 
DAY 2  
VALID 12Z THU OCT 01 2026 - 12Z FRI OCT 02 2026  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO  
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES THROUGH THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS IS POSITIONED RIGHT  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE SOUTHERN AREA OF THE  
MIDWEST WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE  
OF THE PRIOR 24 HOURS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY  
IS THE MOST NOTABLE AREA FOR APPRECIABLE IMPACTS AS ANOTHER PERIOD  
WHERE 2-4", LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE PLAUSIBLE LEADING TO LOCALLY  
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF THE  
AREA IN GENERAL. HOURLY RATES LIKELY BETWEEN 1-2"/HR WITH AS HIGH  
AS 3-4"/HR FOR INTRA- HOUR RATE POTENTIAL, A SIGNATURE NOTORIOUS  
FOR ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WITHIN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE  
I-35 CORRIDOR. THE MODERATE RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FROM SOUTH  
TEXAS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  
 
PROLONGED DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THE  
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A BROAD AREA OF UNCHARACTERISTICALLY  
HIGH PW VALUES THANKS TO AN AIRMASS COINCIDENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF  
TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO. PW VALUES BETWEEN 2-2.25" OVER THE MIDWEST  
AND MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE UPWARDS OF 3-4 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AN ANOMALY THAT WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH  
SOME OF THE DAILY AND EVEN MONTHLY MAXIMA FOR PWS OVER THIS GENERAL  
AREA. A BROAD SLIGHT RISK COVERS TEXAS TO WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST  
INDIANA FOR SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.  
 
CAMPBELL/KLEEBAUER  
 
 
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 02 2026 - 12Z SAT OCT 03 2026  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN TEXAS...  
 
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAWN INTO A LINGERING LOW LEVEL  
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, IMPACTING SOME  
AREAS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE LEFT VULNERABLE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF BY  
THE PREVIOUS DAY(S) HEAVY RAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A  
SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS CENTERED ACROSS PARTS OF  
SOUTH TO SOUTH-CENTAL TEXAS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SUPPORTED BY DEEP SOUTHERLY  
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROADENING POOL OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SPREADING  
FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THIS BOUNDARY. MID- LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE FLOW MAY HELP PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, WITH SOME  
GUIDANCE INDICATING HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM  
MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD. A BROAD MARGINAL  
SPANS FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF TO WESTERN FLORIDA AND THEN  
NORTHEAST TO OHIO AND KENTUCKY.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
 
DAY 4 AND DAY 5  
 
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 03 2026 - 12Z MON OCT 05 2026  
 
...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY DAY 4 AND ALONG THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST DAY 5...  
 
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS  
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE  
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. DEEP, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (2-2.5+  
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL) WILL BE DRAWN ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONT  
THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MID-  
TO-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE BROADER SCALE  
TROUGH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED, HIGHLY-  
EFFICIENT STORMS, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HEAVY AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING  
THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE ANTICIPATED POSITION OF THE  
FRONT, A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS  
MAINTAINED ON DAY 4. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST,  
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED MORE  
ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK WAS FOCUSED ON DAY 5.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS LIMITED BY MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO  
THE TIMING THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ELEMENTS.  
WHILE THE OUTLOOK AREAS WERE DRAWN ACCORDING TO WHERE THE ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWED THE GREATER THREATS FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS,  
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES.  
 
PEREIRA  
 
 
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT  
 

 
 
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