777
FXUS01 KWBC 302007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 00Z THU OCT 01 2026 - 00Z SAT OCT 03 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK; IMPACTFUL FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY....
THIS AFTERNOON, RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CORN BELT
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH
REMNANTS OF POLO. A DEEPENING FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS FROM CANADA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF THIS
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TODAY'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, THREE
MODERATE RISK AREAS ARE HIGHLIGHTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CORN BELT WHERE 1-3" OF RAIN OVERLAP WITH
INUNDATED SOILS. BY TOMORROW, THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE 2-4" AND ANOTHER MODERATE RISK IS
FORECAST. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, OWING TO THE SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE
REGION. BY FRIDAY, THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL RESIDE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE GULF STATES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS A FAIRLY
BROAD AREA, HOWEVER, INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, DAILY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
ASHERMAN
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