239
FXUS01 KWBC 010653
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2026
VALID 12Z THU OCT 01 2026 - 12Z SAT OCT 03 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS. THE
FLOODING MAY INCLUDE DEBRIS FLOWS IN OR NEAR RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES
THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON FRIDAY, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRODUCING HEAVY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES
THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO, ON FRIDAY EVENING, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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