873
FXUS06 KWBC 021902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 12 2026
DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A RECURVING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC, WITH A NEGATIVE 150 METER 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS, A MORE TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN
IS FORECAST, WITH RIDGING INITIALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST. FOLLOWING TEMPORARY
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE WAKE OF THIS RIDGE, ANOTHER RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING IS INDICATED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA BY DAY-10 RESULTING IN DECREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, MOST
EVIDENT IN THE 0Z GEFS AND GEFS-AI ENSEMBLES. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS, WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE INDICATED, AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE FARTHER TO THE WEST. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS TIED TO TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH A PREDICTED WARM-UP COMPARED TO THE DAYS PRIOR TO THE START OF
THE PERIOD. INCREASED SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING SEA FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. CONVERSELY, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE LIKELY OVER KAUAI BASED ON THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TIED TO CLIMATOLOGY AND ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC) DENOTES AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT
WEEK AND A POTENTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE REDUCES CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST FAVORS
ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DECREASE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY FOR THE GREAT LAKES. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER ALASKA TIED TO THE POTENTIAL RECURVATURE OF TYPHOON CHOI-WAN OVER
THE WEST PACIFIC AND ITS REMNANTS IMPACTING THE STATE AROUND THE START OF THE
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS REGARDING THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, OFFSET BY A TRANSIENT PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, AND
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS OVER SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 16 2026
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA AND THE
NORTH-PACIFIC, WITH RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN (+PNA).
FARTHER EAST THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS THE PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE MORE
TRANSIENT WITH INITIAL WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWED BY TROUGHING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE PERIOD, WITH THE 0Z GEFS AND GEFS-AI BEING MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE
0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE. FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHING, DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPANDING EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST AMPLITUDE IN THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE GREATEST MAGNITUDE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE 90 METER HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER. WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS (+30 METERS) ARE DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST, AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2 TIED TO EXPANDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FARTHER TO THE EAST.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE PERIOD. THE GEFS AND GEFS-AI ENSEMBLES ARE MOST ROBUST INDICATING A PERIOD
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY WARMER.
HOWEVER, THE +PNA PATTERN WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING IN THE
EAST SUPPORTING THE LEAN TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA UNDER ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE ODDS INCREASED OVER THE
FAR WESTERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS. THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII
DURING WEEK-2, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER KAUAI.
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST UNDERNEATH RIDGING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TIED TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC THAT MAY TRACK NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SLIGHTLY TILTS THE ODDS
TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS. HIGHER CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
TIED TO A STATIONARY FRONT, ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTEND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT) SHIFTING EAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- OR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTY TIED TO DECREASING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS LATER IN THE PERIOD, AND
THE AMPLITUDE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210919 - 20150918 - 20040923 - 19920927 - 20071001
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20051011 - 20211011 - 20040922 - 20210921 - 20071004
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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