304
FXUS01 KWBC 031833
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2026
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 04 2026 - 00Z TUE OCT 06 2026
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WHILE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHILE
THIS WEEKEND...
...A LONG DURATION OCTOBER HEATWAVE EMERGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE AN ANOMALOUS
OCTOBER HEATWAVE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE LINGERING WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS THE RESULT OF A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE GULF. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A SLIGHT
RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, LOWER TEXAS COAST, AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
BY TOMORROW, THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK UPPER-TROUGH. THE LATEST FORECAST STILL SUGGESTS A FEW
INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 7 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE
GULF SHORES AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE TROUGH NUDGES THE FRONT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, HOWEVER, FLOOD WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FROM COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, RESPECTIVELY.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH TOMORROW. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A
STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, SHOWERS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS THE
COOL AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST TAKES OVER.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER, AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
AS THE WET PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH, AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD A LATE SEASON OCTOBER HEATWAVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TOWARD THE
COAST AND ADJACENT URBAN AREAS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA NEARING 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO URBAN AREAS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF THROUGH THE HEAT WAVE. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE HEAT
ADVISORIES EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND BAY AREA. THE HEAT
WILL THEN EXPAND FARTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND NEAR 90 DEGREES EMERGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD FALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AS A
RESULT.
ASHERMAN/KONG
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