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FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT OCTOBER 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 - 13 2026
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
REGARDING THE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AS MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE
0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, DEPICT A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN A
SHIFT IN THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD MORE TROUGHING NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE EAST. THE 6Z GEFS HAS MADE A
CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN, AND IS IN BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GEFS-AI ENSEMBLES COMPARED TO THE 0Z RUN. THE
MANUAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST
AREAS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TIED TO A RECURVING TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC
RESULTING IN A NEGATIVE 150 METER HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN THE MANUAL BLEND AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN MAINLAND. GIVEN
STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS TIED TO TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING. ACROSS THE WEST, THE LARGEST
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED EARLY IN THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY AN
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND A RESULTANT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. TIED TO THIS EVOLUTION, PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS, ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS DUE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST FAVORS ELEVATED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
SOME AREAS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DECREASE FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE TREND TOWARD MORE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST
RESULTS IN MANY FORECAST TOOLS NOW LEANING TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WEST. THIS IS TIED TO AN INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE CHANGE IN THE TOOLS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, A BROAD
AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER FOUR CORNERS CLOSEST TO THE POTENTIAL
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER
ALASKA TIED TO THE POTENTIAL RECURVATURE OF TYPHOON CHOI-WAN OVER THE WEST
PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, CONTINUED
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE EAST, OFFSET BY A LARGE CHANGE IN THE TOOLS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 17 2026
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA AND THE
NORTH-PACIFIC, WITH RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN (+PNA).
TROUGHING INITIALLY FAVORED OVER THE WEST IS PREDICTED TO LIFT OUT AND MOVE
EASTWARD, WITH THE 0Z ECMWF, 0Z/6Z GEFS, AND 0Z CANADIAN EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS IS MORE UNCERTAIN; ALTHOUGH RIDGING IS PREDOMINATELY FAVORED
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST SUPPORTS MORE TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A +PNA. THE 0Z GEFS AND
GEFS-AI SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATING A BROADENING TROUGH BY THE END OF WEEK-2. THE WEEK-2
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE FARTHER WEST. THE VARYING PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS LEADS TO NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST AREAS, WITH A +30 METER POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC TIED TO
RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2 TIED TO GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW, BUT WITH PERIODS OF
INCREASED RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD (EAST) AND LATER IN THE PERIOD (WEST).
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THE 0Z GEFS
AND GEFS-AI ENSEMBLES ARE MOST ROBUST, INDICATING A PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE 0Z ECMWF AND 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE RELATIVELY
WARMER, REDUCING CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE +PNA PATTERN WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH
ENHANCED TROUGHING IN THE EAST SUPPORTING THE LEAN TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL FARTHER SOUTH.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA UNDER
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE ODDS
INCREASED OVER THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII DURING WEEK-2.
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TIED TO ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
AND NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TIED TO A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC THAT MAY TRACK NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND FOUR CORNERS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST TIED TO A STATIONARY FRONT,
ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO TRACK NORTHWARD, ALONG WITH
INCREASING FRONTAL ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING LATER IN WEEK-2.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS, AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST GIVEN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FAVOR ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) SHIFTING EAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- OR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WITH A MORE VARIABLE AND
TRANSIENT PATTERN EMERGING OVER THE CONUS WITH WEAK OR INCONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210919 - 20040924 - 20241004 - 19920927 - 20051001
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210920 - 20040923 - 20241003 - 20051011 - 20071004
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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