127
FXUS01 KWBC 040808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2026
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 04 2026 - 12Z TUE OCT 06 2026
...MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WHILE A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...
...A LONG DURATION OCTOBER HEATWAVE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND SPREADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE AN ANOMALOUS
OCTOBER HEATWAVE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE LINGERING WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS THE RESULT OF CONTINUED INTERACTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS THAT HAS
SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER NOW HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS FORMING ALONG A STATIONARY CONVERGENCE
ZONE JUST OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ONSHORE. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE HEAVIEST FORECAST RAINFALL
REMAINS NEAR THE GULF SHORES TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE A MAXIMUM OF 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A CONVECTION CLUSTER. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE FRONT NUDGES FARTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
OFFSHORE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS THE COOL AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST TAKES OVER. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD, DELIVERING
FINE AND COOL FALL WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE SUNSHINE STATE WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVY FRONT PERSIST.
WHILE THE WET PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH, AN ANOMALOUS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD A LATE SEASON OCTOBER HEATWAVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S
TOWARD THE COAST AND ADJACENT URBAN AREAS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA SOARING INTO THE LOWER 100S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN
DIEGO URBAN AREAS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF THROUGH THE HEATWAVE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND BAY AREA. THE HEAT WILL THEN EXPAND FARTHER NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES EMERGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AS A RESULT.
KONG
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