303
FXUS06 KWBC 041902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCTOBER 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 14 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT A VARIABLE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICA REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT EVOLUTION OF YESTERDAY'S MANUAL BLEND
FORECAST. TODAY'S MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GREATER
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS. AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA RELATED TO A RECURVING TROPICAL
CYCLONE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NOW PREDICTED BY ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AT
THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO LIFT OUT AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. ALL ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECASTS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES DEAMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UNDER
TRANSIENT RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH
REFORECAST CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING A
LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER A TRANSIENT TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EXCLUDING
FAR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, WEST OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. MOST TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR WEST, UNDER A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODEL PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY A VARIABLE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, TRANSIENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IN MOST MODELS
AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN PARTICULAR. RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF WEEK 2, BEFORE
DEAMPLIFYING. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC DURING WEEK 2. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IN GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND OF
500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS SHOWS WEAK ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH
SLIGHTLY LARGER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE WEST
COAST AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS UNDER TRANSIENT POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE PERIOD. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED AND EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT. PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEAKEN FURTHER NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ONLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, EXCLUDING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. WITH A PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE REGION, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, AS A RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF THE WEST, INCLUDING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, AND WESTERN NEVADA. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX
FROM AN ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST
OF TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
INCREASING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD, AND WEAK OR INCONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE TOOLS
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20171016 - 20081016 - 20241004 - 20210916 - 20040926
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210920 - 20241003 - 20081017 - 20040925 - 20171017
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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