617
FXUS01 KWBC 041951
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2026
VALID 00Z MON OCT 05 2026 - 00Z WED OCT 07 2026
... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...AN OCTOBER HEATWAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THIS WEEK...
... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN AUTUMNAL CHILL TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERN TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STREAMING IN FROM THE
GULF WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
FURTHER SATURATE SOUTHERN TEXAS, WHICH HAS ALREADY HAD SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. URBAN AREAS, SUCH AS BROWNSVILLE, WILL BE
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE AND TRAIN OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LATE SEASON
OCTOBER HEAT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TOWARD THE COAST AND ADJACENT
URBAN AREAS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA
SOARING INTO THE LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO URBAN AREAS WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF THROUGH THE HEATWAVE. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR DESERTS, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND BAY AREA. AS FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST,
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION, RAISING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S, AROUND 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER TEMPERATURES.
THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO ALSO BRING A FIRE WEATHER RISK ON
MONDAY FOR THE UPPER MOUNTAIN WEST.
IN CONTRAST TO A SUMMER FEEL-LIKE HEAT ACROSS THE WEST, A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN AN AUTUMNAL CHILL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM MICHIGAN TO MAINE WITH WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST COLD SHOTS
OF THE FALL SEASON AND WILL BRING SOME AGRICULTURAL RISK. FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND BRING A TASTE OF FALL TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S WITH COOL
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. ENJOY!!
WILDER
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