155
FXUS01 KWBC 050803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 12Z MON OCT 05 2026 - 12Z WED OCT 07 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GRADUALLY EDGES OFF THE GULF COAST AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST IN FLORIDA...
...AN OCTOBER HEATWAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THIS WEEK...
...AUTUMNAL CHILL WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT WET WEATHER PATTERN
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN
REMAIN JUST OFF THE WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, EXCEPT
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE SOME HEAVY RAIN MANAGES TO MOVE
ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AS THE FRONT EDGES EVER SO SLOWLY
SOUTH, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. HOWEVER, SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MEANWHILE, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A LATE SEASON OCTOBER HEAT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S
TOWARD THE COAST AND ADJACENT URBAN AREAS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA SOARING INTO THE LOWER 100S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN
DIEGO URBAN AREAS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF THROUGH THE HEATWAVE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR DESERTS, WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES EXTEND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND BAY AREA. A PIECE OF THIS WARM AIR
MASS IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80Sâ€â€AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGEâ€â€WILL CHALLENGE
SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO ALSO BRING A FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
IN CONTRAST TO A SUMMER FEEL-LIKE HEAT ACROSS THE WEST, A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN AUTUMNAL CHILL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM MICHIGAN TO MAINE WITH WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST COLD SHOTS
OF THE FALL SEASON AND WILL BRING SOME AGRICULTURAL RISK. FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND BRING A TASTE OF FALL TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY,
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST TODAY AS A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S
WITH COOL MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. ENJOY!!
KONG/WILDER
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