855
FXUS06 KWBC 051928
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON OCTOBER 05 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 15 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT A VARIABLE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICA REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND AN EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL
FORECASTS. TODAY'S 0Z GEFS 6-10 DAY FORECAST REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY'S 0Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS AN OUTLIER RELATIVE
TO OTHER MODELS. TODAY'S MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 6Z GEFS AND THE 0Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE THE 0Z
GEFS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GIVEN GREATER WEIGHT IN TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND
THAN YESTERDAY'S BLEND, DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL AND CONSISTENCY WITH
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. WHILE ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS, COMPARED TO THE 0Z
ECMWF, THE 6Z GEFS AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A GREATER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICA REGION AND CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, THE ECWMF MODEL PREDICTS A POSITIVELY TILTED
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF HAWAII ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
CANADA, WHERE THE CANADIAN AND GEFS MODELS PREDICT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WESTERN
CANADA, AND EASTERN ALASKA. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH GREATER
AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE
ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN, THAN IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES, THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS INITIALLY DEAMPLIFIES BEFORE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF MODEL GENERALLY PERSISTS THE TROUGH AND RIDGE
PATTERN LONGER THAN OTHER MODELS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST CALIBRATED GEFS
AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
EXCLUDING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE TOOLS ARE LESS CONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER A TRANSIENT TROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, EXCLUDING FAR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND
OF TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST, WEST OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS AND CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION
ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. SUPPORTED BY
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECASTS, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, EXCEEDING 50
PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS
OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED BLEND OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY INCREASING DIFFERENCES AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES, AND
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 19 2026
ECWMF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. ECMWF BASED TOOLS WERE GENERALLY WEIGHTED MORE IN THE FORECAST,
DUE TO GREATER SKILL AND PERSISTENCE OF YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL AREAS OF THE DOMAIN. THE
8-14 DAY MANUAL BLEND 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE BERING SEA EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC IN THE GEFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL CONUS IN ALL MODELS. WEAK BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN ZERO 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN
THE MANUAL BLEND. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS GREATER POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS, THAN THE GEFS OR CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS, AND THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COASTS, AND FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AS A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, UNDER TRANSIENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST AND CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS
ARE INCONSISTENT OR SHOW WEAK SIGNALS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. WITH A
PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. UNDER A PREDICTED
RIDGE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, FROM MOST OF THE WEST COAST, EXCLUDING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF TEXAS, AND FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM
THE CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE SIGNALS ARE GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST
OF HAWAII, EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
INCREASING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD, AND WEAK OR INCONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE TOOLS
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20171016 - 20081017 - 20050928 - 20201008 - 20210915
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20081017 - 20171017 - 20210915 - 20050928 - 20241003
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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