621
FXUS01 KWBC 051954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 06 2026 - 00Z THU OCT 08 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GRADUALLY EDGES OFF THE GULF COAST AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST IN FLORIDA...
...AN OCTOBER HEATWAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THIS WEEK...
...AUTUMNAL CHILL WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT WET WEATHER PATTERN
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND AN
ACCOMPANIED ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
(TUESDAY-THURSDAY) WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THIS
REGION IN A SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PROVIDING PLENTY
OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. THE FORECAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH NO
CHANGE IN HAZARDOUS HEAT MESSAGING FOR THE CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TOWARD THE COAST AND ADJACENT URBAN AREAS,
WITH SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA SOARING INTO
THE LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE LOS
ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO URBAN AREAS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF
THROUGH THE HEATWAVE. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR DESERTS, WHILE
HEAT ADVISORIES EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND BAY AREA. A
PIECE OF THIS WARM AIR MASS IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80Sâ€â€AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGEâ€â€WILL CHALLENGE SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.
IN CONTRAST TO A SUMMER FEEL-LIKE HEAT ACROSS THE WEST, AN AUTUMN
AIRMASS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST
WITH COOL, DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO MIDDLE 60S ARE FORECAST FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE 50S LIKELY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH SOME COOLER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S THANKS TO
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A DRY AIR MASS. THIS IS ONE OF
THE FIRST COLD SHOTS OF THE FALL SEASON AND WILL BRING SOME
AGRICULTURAL RISK. FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN THE TROPICS, THE NHC HAS TAGGED INVEST 98-L ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORMATION CHANCES OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE ARE 60 % IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
80% THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THE LINK:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page