721
FXUS01 KWBC 060800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 06 2026 - 12Z THU OCT 08 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GRADUALLY EDGES OFF THE GULF COAST AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST IN FLORIDA...
...AN OCTOBER HEATWAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THIS WEEK...
...AUTUMNAL CHILL OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT WET WEATHER PATTERN
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS MOVED JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A MARGINAL THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING RISK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS
THIS REGION EACH DAY IN A SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PROVIDING PLENTY
OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH NO
CHANGE IN HAZARDOUS HEAT MESSAGING FOR THE CALIFORNIA HEATWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TOWARD THE COAST AND ADJACENT URBAN AREAS,
WITH SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA SOARING INTO
THE LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE LOS
ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO URBAN AREAS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF
THROUGH THE HEATWAVE. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR DESERTS, WHILE
HEAT ADVISORIES EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND BAY AREA. A
PIECE OF THIS WARM AIR MASS IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80Sâ€â€AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGEâ€â€WILL CHALLENGE SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
IN CONTRAST TO THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT ACROSS THE WEST, A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH A
COOL AND DRY AUTUMNAL AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S
TO MIDDLE 60S ARE FORECAST FOR THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
LIKELY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH SOME
COOLER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S THANKS TO EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A DRY AIR MASS. THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST
COLD SHOTS OF THE FALL SEASON AND WILL BRING SOME AGRICULTURAL
RISK. FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
AND LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM CANADA ARRIVES. MEANWHILE, AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
IN THE TROPICS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO RAISE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF SOUTH OF THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK
TOWARD COASTAL LOUISIANA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
KONG/WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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