285
FXUS06 KWBC 061902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 06 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 16 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT A VARIABLE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICA REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL
500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE TO
RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST
CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING MAINE WHERE TOOLS ARE LESS CONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
STATE, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL CONUS, UNDER
A TRANSIENT TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF
TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. AHEAD
OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE HAWAII
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE AUTOMATED BLEND AND CONSOLIDATION OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY INCREASING DIFFERENCES AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES, AND
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 20 2026
ECWMF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. ECMWF BASED TOOLS WERE GENERALLY WEIGHTED MORE IN THE FORECAST,
DUE TO GREATER SKILL AND PERSISTENCE OF YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL AREAS OF THE DOMAIN. THE
8-14 DAY MANUAL BLEND 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
WHERE A TROUGH AND WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE
MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AS A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER TRANSIENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. WITH A PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, FROM MOST
OF THE WEST COAST, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
INCREASING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD, AND WEAK OR INCONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE TOOLS
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20081017 - 20171016 - 20201007 - 20050928 - 20200919
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20081017 - 20171017 - 20050928 - 20201008 - 20210915
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page