020
FXUS06 KWBC 071902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED OCTOBER 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 17 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH, A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH
AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. NEAR
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND FAR
NORTHERN ALASKA SLOPE, UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS THE MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
OF REFORECAST CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH
AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE
CONSOLIDATION. AHEAD OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE HAWAII
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE AUTOMATED BLEND AND CONSOLIDATION OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. ECMWF BASED
TOOLS WERE GENERALLY WEIGHTED MORE IN THE FORECAST, DUE TO GREATER SKILL AND
PERSISTENCE OF YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE
FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL AREAS OF THE DOMAIN. THE 8-14 DAY MANUAL BLEND 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE BERING SEA EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER NEW ENGLAND. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AS A RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER TRANSIENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. WITH A PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, FROM MOST
OF THE WEST COAST, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201007 - 20081017 - 20200919 - 20171016 - 20050928
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201007 - 20081017 - 20050928 - 20171017 - 20200919
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page