463
FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 18 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH AND NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINE. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH
AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND MOST OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. AHEAD
OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC,
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE HAWAII
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE AUTOMATED BLEND AND CONSOLIDATION OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 22 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. ECMWF BASED
TOOLS WERE GENERALLY WEIGHTED MORE IN THE FORECAST, DUE TO GREATER SKILL AND
PERSISTENCE OF YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE
FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL AREAS OF THE DOMAIN. THE 8-14 DAY MANUAL BLEND 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN SHOWS A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS, BUT MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAYS PERIOD.
A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO
THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH
AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, AS A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, FROM MOST
OF THE WEST COAST, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201007 - 19991021 - 20081017 - 20181019 - 20200919
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201006 - 19991020 - 20200919 - 20181019 - 20081018
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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