869
FXUS02 KWBC 090711
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VALID 12Z MON OCT 12 2026 - 12Z FRI OCT 16 2026
...REMNANTS OF RACHEL TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..RECORD HEAT FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID-SOUTH, AND SOUTHEAST
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
A RATHER AMPLIFIED BUT STILL MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM IN
THE WEST MONDAY WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF RACHEL,
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT INTO NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR
ESPECIALLY AZ INTO UT. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE PLAINS
AS MOISTURE FROM EX-SIMON FLOWS NORTHWARD. FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES, RECORD TEMPERATURES MONDAY (TX TO MO TO MS) INTO
THE 90S WILL SLOWLY COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
OVERALL, TAKING THE DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST AT A BIT QUICKER
PACE THAN 24-48 HRS AGO. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE AI RUNS (ECMWF-AIFS,
ESPECIALLY) DID NOT DIG THE TROUGH DEEP ENOUGH TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT, THEREFORE OUTRUNNING THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS. FOR NOW,
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET CONSENSUS ALONG
WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CHANGES IN RECENT
RUNS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WHICH FEEDS THE PATTERN INTO WESTERN
NOAM. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST, DESPITE THE GOOD APPARENT
AGREEMENT.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ACROSS THE WEST, THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL COMBINED WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER TROUGH WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD MODEST TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY AS
WELL. COLD AIR SURGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS, LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH GENERALLY MINOR IMPACTS, BUT THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST APPRECIABLE SNOW FOR THE UTAH RANGES.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MOISTURE FROM WHAT
IS LEFTOVER FROM SIMON MAY STREAM NORTHWARD AND AID IN PRODUCING A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY SET NEW DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS (UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S). LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE 70S FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS YIELDING HEATRISK
VALUES OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS MAJOR OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
FINALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, BRINGING IN SOME COOLER
WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
FRACASSO
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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