075
FXUS06 KWBC 101902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 19 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH
AMERICA AND ADJACENT REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DEPICTING FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA, AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA. DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD ONE OR
MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS, BRINGING BRIEF
PULSES OF PRECIPITATION AND TRANSIENT COLD PERIODS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE LOWER 48.
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA GENERALLY FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. ODDS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, (>50%, AND >60% FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA), UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS AND LARGEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES. EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO THE COUNTRY'S
MIDSECTION AND TILTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA. IN
ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LEADS TO A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW-NORMAL ALONG THE MAINLAND'S
WESTERN COAST. ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION KEEP
HAWAII TILTING TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S., PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE CHANCES
EXCEED 50%. WITH WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS, LEADING TO
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BEING INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER
AVERAGED ACROSS THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THE PACIFIC TROPICS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO FORCING FROM EL NINO, AND HAWAII REMAINS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 23 2026
THE OVERALL PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ENSEMBLE
MODEL FORECASTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THAT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA ARE
BOTH MUCH WEAKER IN THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES MANUAL BLEND. BOTH THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS ARE REDUCED AS
WELL, BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN THE REDUCED TROUGHING.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 UNDER
PERSISTENT RIDGING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA (>60%) AND 50-60% ODDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS FROM A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA MAINTAINS NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SIMILAR POSITIONING OF TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MAINTAINS AN EAST-WEST
GRADIENT, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR THE BIG ISLAND,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS PUSHES MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS
(40-50%) FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS STILL FAVORED ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE A POTENTIAL STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN LINGERING RAIN. ALASKA CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHER CHANCES (40-50%) FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WIDE SPREAD AMONG PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201007 - 19991020 - 20181019 - 19890929 - 20200919
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201006 - 19991020 - 20181019 - 20200919 - 19991015
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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