470
FXUS02 KWBC 141838
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 17 2026 - 12Z WED OCT 21 2026
...BROAD FROST/FREEZE THREATS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT
WILL BRING FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS FLORIDA, LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WEST SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S.) HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. TO START, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONG SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY,
WITH A COLD FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH, WHICH COULD PROLONG PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP. MEANWHILE, MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A LARGE AND DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST
SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED,
SLOWER, AND FARTHER WEST WITH ITS PLACEMENT BEFORE EVENTUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AGAIN WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS TO QPF, TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST.
THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 5, INCREASING THE WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLE MEAN
INCLUSION TO 50 PERCENT OF THE BLEND FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 AMIDST
GREATER UNCERTAINTY OUT WEST. DESPITE THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY AND
LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN THE WEST, THIS GENERALLY
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AND WAS
CONSISTENT WITH THE 13Z NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY AND ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTING MOISTURE
INTO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, A PROLONGED STRETCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PARTS OF THE WEST COULD ALSO
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND WITH
LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. ELSEWHERE, A DRIER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE
COUNTRY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
BROAD FROST/FREEZE THREATS. MEANWHILE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE WEST BY MID NEXT WEEK.
MILLER/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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