905
FXUS02 KWBC 152012
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 18 2026 - 12Z THU OCT 22 2026
...FROST/FREEZE THREATS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...A POSSIBLE EAST COAST LOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK COULD BRING
COASTAL IMPACTS...
..OVERVIEW
A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH FLORIDA MAY BRING A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
ALSO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EAST COAST ALONG THIS FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING COASTAL IMPACTS
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW GETS. OUT WEST, AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST WITH DEEP TROUGHING LIKELY
OVER THE WEST BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS WELL LATE PERIOD.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EITHER LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THESE TRENDS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT, DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION, STRENGTH, AND TRACK
ALL REMAIN IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THE WPC FORECAST UTILIZED A
BLEND THAT TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH, WHILE LEANING
TOWARDS A MORE DEVELOPED AND RELATIVELY CLOSER TO THE COAST
SOLUTION. THIS ENDED UP BEING PRIMARILY A NON-NCEP CONSENSUS WITH
INCREASING WEIGHT ON THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN BEYOND DAY 5. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS WITH A POSSIBLY STRONGER AND CLOSER
COASTAL LOW NEXT WEEK, MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
THE COMING DAYS AS FUTURE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE DRAMATIC.
OUT WEST, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF INLAND PENETRATION OF PRECIPITATION AND A
GENERALLY WARMER SYSTEM EVOLUTION FEATURING MOSTLY RAIN AND ONLY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WPC HAS THIS REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY
WINDS; HOWEVER, CONCERNS FOR COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ALL HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS LOW FORMS, WHICH IS STILL
HIGH UNCERTAIN. A CLOSER LOW WOULD MEAN MUCH GREATER IMPACTS (HIGH
WINDS, ROUGH SURF, COASTAL FLOODING, ETC), ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW
LINGERS FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME. OUT WEST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. SOME RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. BY MID NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST ON
SUNDAY, WITH FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS CONDITIONS TREND COOLER ACROSS THE WEST
UNDERNEATH DEEP TROUGHING NEXT WEEK.
MILLER/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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