570
FOUS30 KWBC 230044
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
844 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z FRI OCT 23 2026 - 12Z FRI OCT 23 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
..SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
01Z UPDATE: CURRENT WV SATELLITE DEPICTS OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW (ULL)
POSITIONED OVER WEST-CENTRAL CA WITH A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MEAN TROUGH IS PROVIDING ASCENT WITHIN THE RER OF THE JET WHICH
COUPLED WITH ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM IS PROVIDING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AZ UP INTO WESTERN
NM INTO SOUTHERN CO/UT. HEIGHT FIELDS DEPICT A TEXTBOOK DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN 700-200MB OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED
DEVIATION IN ITS DEPICTION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS TO A SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM PATTERN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
SCATTERED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME TRAINING DUE TO DEEP
LAYER FLOW REMAINING FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL HAS AIDED IN SEVERAL
FLASH FLOOD OCCURRENCES ACROSS THE HIGH DESERTS IN UT/AZ/NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE SAN JUANS IN CO CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL PROVIDING A STEADY RISE IN THE
TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE REGION.
WE HAVE FORTUNATELY REMAINED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER CELL CORES AT
THIS JUNCTURE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ WHERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND STRONGER
INDIVIDUAL MESOCYCLONES HAVE MATERIALIZED CAUSING RAIN RATES TO TOP
1"/HR IN SOME AREAS. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND THE
ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS LEFTOVER FROM THE RAINFALL PRIOR,
FLASH FLOOD CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT THE LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE THE THREAT SETTLES. GIVEN
THE STATE OF THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS ACROSS NM, HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND THE MDT RISK SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHICH WILL SEE CONVECTION FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA WITH HOURS OF OVERLAP INTO AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLASH
FLOODING. THE HIGH-END MDT REMAINS FOR THE SAN JUANS WITH THE MDT
RISK EXPANDING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHEASTERN UT.
EXPECTATION IS FOR 1-2", LOCALLY HIGHER, OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN
THE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE MDT RISK WITH MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF 1" OR MORE WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE
CURRENT HIGHER RISK (MDT).
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, A TARGETED AREA OF
NORTHWESTERN NV INTO SOUTHERN OR WILL BE UNDER THE DEFINED AXIS OF
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES LEADING TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVERNIGHT. TRENDS AMONG
GUIDANCE HAVE SIGNALED A BIT LESS VIGOR IN TERMS OF HOURLY RATE
EXPECTANCY FOR THE SETUP AS THE LATEST HRRR/RRFS TANDEM LIMIT THE
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION, THUS LIMITING THE UPPER END POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. DESPITE SOME OF THE SIGNATURES FOR 1-1.5" OF
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN POCKETS OF THE ABOVE AREA, MUCH OF THE RAIN
WILL COME OVER THE SPAN OF SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE A
LOT OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL, EVEN FOR THIS AREA OF HISTORICALLY
LOWER FFG'S. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL EXISTS, HOWEVER,
SO THE CHANCES REMAIN WITHIN THE MRGL RISK CATEGORY, BUT THE
PREVIOUS SLGT WAS REMOVED GIVEN THE LOWERED THREAT OVERALL.
..SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO MOTION OUT OF THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
STILL PREVALENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NOTED VIA SEVERAL OF
THE CAMS. A CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING PARALLEL TO
THE LAND WITH THE FRINGE OF THE CONVECTION REACHING PARTS OF THE
UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE THE NEEDLE WITH REGARDS TO
FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS, BUT IS A DEFINED LOOK TO WHAT IS PLAUSIBLE A
BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WE MAINTAINED THE PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. HRRR/RRFS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE POTENTIAL, BUT OTHER CAMS NOTED SOME
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, ALBEIT FAIRLY ISOLATED OVERALL. DECIDED WITH
THE CURRENT PRESENTATION AND SOME GUIDANCE STILL OFFERING THE LOW-
END THREAT, MAINTAINED CONTINUITY AND KEPT THE MRGL IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY CELLS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THREAT REMAINS AT THE LOWER END OF THE RISK THRESHOLD WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL SPURRING UP OVER THE COMING DAYS.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 2
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 23 2026 - 12Z SAT OCT 24 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE EL PASO METRO...
..21Z UPDATE
..NM AND SOUTHERN CO
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD CONCERNING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN ENERGY OVER ARIZONA/UTAH FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, THE TROUGH IS REINFORCED ON
FRIDAY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/ARIZONA, RESULTING IN THE FORMATION
OF A NEW CLOSED LOW. THE NET RESULT DOWNSTREAM IS ONLY A MINOR
EASTWARD PUSH OF HEIGHTS INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WHICH WILL BE
A HINDRANCE FOR FORCING. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ANOMALOUS (2 TO 4+ STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FROM
THE 12Z GFS) FROM FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
CONNECTION TO MOISTURE RELATED TO REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.
THE MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SSW, RANGING FROM 20 TO 40
KT AND 850-700 MB WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG AT 15 TO 30+ KT.
THEREFORE, WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, THERE
WILL BE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN.
THE 12Z HREF/REFS SHOWED THAT THE PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 TO 1.0+
IN/HR RAINFALL RAMP UP IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME AND DIMINISH AFTER
06Z SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES.
THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT REMAINS VALID (SEE BELOW),
INCLUDING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATES/INSTABILITY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN THE MODELS LOWERING THE EXISTING SLIGHT RISK AREA.
..EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BUT
WAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE CAPE CANAVERAL WHERE SIMILAR
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL EXIST. SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH
WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN PLACE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD NEAR THE CAPE CANAVERAL REGION. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LOWER INTO THE SPACE COAST (AT OR LESS THAN 1 INCH),
THERE ARE SOME MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR 3, 5 AND 8 INCHES OVER THE
24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST ACCORDING TO THE 12Z HREF/REFS.
OTTO
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
..NM AND SOUTHERN CO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM
INTO SOUTHERN CO DOWNSTREAM OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD FROM CA INTO AZ. IN THE BROADER EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM, DAY 2 (FRIDAY) APPEARS TO REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY COMPARED TO MORE ACTIVE
PERIODS EXPECTED ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. NONETHELESS, PWS
WILL REMAIN ANOMALOUS AND COLLOCATED WITH 500-1500 J/KG OF CAPE.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
WHILE THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE REMAINS MODEST AND GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL RISK, THE PRESENCE OF BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER SOUTHERN NM COULD YIELD AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AS WE
GET MORE INTO THE HIGH RES MODEL TIMEFRAME. CONSIDERING THE
HYDROLOGIC VULNERABILITY, THE INHERITED SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS INTO
ADJACENT URBAN CORRIDORS.
..SOUTHEAST FL
A SETUP SIMILAR TO DAY 1 WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST FL, WHERE
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD FOCUS
SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL, WITH A POSSIBILITY THE HEAVIEST CORES
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO INTRODUCE SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MOISTURE PROFILE, WITH THE GFS SHOWING
NOTABLY HIGHER PW VALUES THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE DETAILS THE INHERITED MARGINAL RISK WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED.
CHENARD
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 24 2026 - 12Z SUN OCT 25 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
..21Z UPDATE
..EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES EXISTED IN THE 12Z MODELS REGARDING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE 12Z GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, THE MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH BROAD SUPPORT FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
24 HOUR PERIOD. ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTAINING 2 TO 4+ STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES IN
THE 12Z GFS. THE INCREASED FORCING/INSTABILITY MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO LOOK VALID WHICH WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOURLY RAINFALL LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 1 INCH APPEARS LIKELY AND WHEN COMBINING WITH ANTECEDENT
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS, A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOCUSED FROM THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION
WHILE BETTER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL CONTINUE A LOCALIZED
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE APPROACHING
CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA/UTAH. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH (9000+ FEET ABOVE MSL) ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING OR REPEATING CELLS. MODEL FORECAST
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION BUT WHERE POCKETS OF AT LEAST
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP, THERE WILL BE SUPPORT
FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.0+ INCHES IN 3 HOURS. GIVEN THE
PRECEDING DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING UP TO SATURDAY, THE
REGION WILL BE MORE HYDROLOGICALLY SENSITIVE THAN AVERAGE TO
ADDITIONAL, ALBIET LOCALIZED, HEAVY RAINFALL.
..EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL RISK WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE SPACE COAST GIVEN SIMILAR
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS.
THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY, REGARDING A MID-LEVEL LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE IN MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
WHILE MODEL QPF FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ARE MIXED, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE URBAN
SOUTHEASTERN CORRIDOR GIVEN THE SETUP, SO THE SLIGHT RISK WAS LEFT
IN PLACE FOR NOW. ONCE THE FORECAST IS MORE WITHIN THE HIRES
WINDOW, A BETTER DEPICTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD
HOPEFULLY EMERGE WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE ERO.
OTTO
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
..EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO
AN UPTICK IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT COMPARED TO DAY 2 IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO ON SATURDAY.
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACH THE REGION, WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP AMPLIFY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. PWS WILL
REMAIN ANOMALOUS, HOLDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX VALUES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES UPWARDS
OF 500-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME. DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME CELL TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS, NOT
SURPRISING THAT MODEL QPF VALUES ARE NOTABLY HIGHER COMPARED TO
DAY 2.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING, DEEP AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE,
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1-2"/HR. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A DAY 3 FORECAST. HIGHER
END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE JUSTIFIED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NM WITH SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED.
..SOUTHEAST FL
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FL URBAN
CORRIDOR. THE MESOSCALE SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TO DAYS 1 AND 2,
WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING COASTAL CONVERGENCE
AND POSSIBLE SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. BY THIS TIME, DYNAMIC ASCENT
MAY BE AIDED BY A DISTINCT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
SYNOPTICALLY, MODEL SPREAD PERSISTS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
MOISTURE PRESENT. THE ECMWF AND AIFS REMAIN NOTICEABLY DRIER
OVERALL, DEPICTING AN ENVIRONMENT LESS CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONVERSELY, THE GFS/AIGFS/UKMET/CMC ALL DEPICT A DEEPER
MOISTURE PROFILE AND CONSISTENTLY PRODUCE A COASTAL HEAVY RAIN
SIGNAL. GIVEN THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AND THE CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY FOR SLOW MOVING CONVECTION TO ANCHOR ALONG THE
SENSITIVE COASTAL CORRIDOR, THERE IS NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
INHERITED SLIGHT RISK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
CHENARD
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 25 2026 - 12Z TUE OCT 27 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ON SUNDAY...
..CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OUR WESTERN DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD, ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SLOWLY, OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY LEADING TO ENHANCED
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ELEVATED MOISTURE POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN TANDEM WITH THE
INCREASED ASCENT WITHIN A DEFINED JET COUPLING OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WE FINALLY SEE
THE PATTERN SETTLE HEADING INTO THE D5 TIME FRAME. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
MEANS REMAIN STEADY WITH A BROAD AXIS OF 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOWING SOME OF THE
EMBEDDED 3-4" HIGHER AMOUNTS DURING THE D4 PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN SOUTHERN NE DOWN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
NORTHEASTERN NM. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
RUN-TO-RUN IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION FINALLY OPENING UP AND EJECTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE D5 TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY PUT AN END TO THE MORE PROLIFIC HEAVY RAINFALL POSTURE
WE'VE EXPERIENCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EVENTUAL IMPACT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PREVIOUS SLGT RISK ON D4 WAS ADJUSTED
A BIT TO REFLECT THE, AGAIN, SLOWER TRENDS IN THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH ALLOWED
FOR A SMALL SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE OVERALL THREAT. THE MAIN AREA OF
INTEREST HAS NOT CHANGED, HOWEVER, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY OVER EASTERN NM UP THROUGH
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, AND INTO WESTERN KS.
BY D5, THE THREAT BEGINS WIND DOWN AS THE PRIMARY ASCENT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD AND THE LINGERING ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
OFFSET FROM THE PRIMARY FORCING. MAINTAINED THE MRGL RISK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO
MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL RISK ADDITION OVER THE
MIDWEST AS THE MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THAT SAID,
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH IS MEAGER, COMPARATIVELY, SO THE THREAT
IS NOT AS PREVALENT OVER AREAS OF SD/MN TO AREAS SOUTH INTO TX/OK.
..SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE THREATS ANCHORED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN FL. THIS IS LIKELY THE FINAL DAY OF THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS DO WANT TO LINGER A BIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, A BIT OF A HOLD OVER FROM WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE AN ACTIVE D3 PERIOD LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR D4 (SUNDAY) BEFORE
THINGS FINALLY SETTLE. EXPECTATION IS FOR LOCAL TOTALS OF 3-5"
ADDITIONAL ON TOP OF ANY HEAVY RAIN THE PREVIOUS PERIODS WILL ONLY
ADD TO THE PROSPECTS OF FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, A SLGT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR THE D4 TIME FRAME BEFORE WE FINALLY FALL TO A NIL ERO FOR D5
(MONDAY) AS THE THREAT BEGINS TO FADE.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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