120
FOUS30 KWBC 240057
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
857 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z SAT OCT 24 2026 - 12Z SAT OCT 24 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO, SOUTHERN COLORADO, AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
..01Z UPDATE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
WHILE THE HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DIMINISHING THREAT,
SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
CONCERNS IN THIS HIGHLY-SENSITIVE AREA.
EXPECT A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS TO FOCUS FARTHER EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, WHERE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVERNIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXTENDED INTO
AREAS WHERE BOTH THE HREF AND REFS SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT.
A SEPARATE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED FARTHER SOUTH, CENTERING
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS AREA ALSO
FALLS ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FORCING.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY CAUSED
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS AND BOTH THE HREF AND REFS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS
AXIS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE MARGINAL RISK THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO WAS REMOVED. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP RAINFALL RATES AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS LOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
PEREIRA
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 24 2026 - 12Z SUN OCT 25 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO...
..2030Z UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S UPDATE. THE AREA
UNDER A HIGHER-END SLIGHT WAS SHRUNK TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS AREA REMAINS AS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING REPEATING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND RESULTANT WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. A SSE'LY LLJ WILL PUMP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WEST
TEXAS. FORTUNATELY, COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS, THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF OVERLAP IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT BY
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, THE SLIGHT IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THE EL PASO
METRO WAS REMOVED FROM THE SLIGHT, DUE IN PART TO LESS RAIN
EXPECTED IN DAY 1/TODAY.
THE MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERING MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN
FLORIDA IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, THOUGH SOME OF THE MIAMI AND FT.
LAUDERDALE METROS WERE REMOVED AS THE FORECAST FOR HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD A BIT.
WEGMAN
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
..WEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION FROM WEST TEXAS/NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS BROAD REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AND MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY. THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING STORMS FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 1-3 INCH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS THIS REGION, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH ANY TRAINING/REPEAT CONVECTION. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR, WHICH WOULD RIVAL
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS
THESE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK
AREA SURROUNDS THE SLIGHT AND EXTENDS A BIT FURTHER INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE, RESULTING IN A LOWER FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.
..FOUR CORNERS REGION
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDS BACK INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA
WHERE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
DROPPING, THEY SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS UTAH AND ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE PRECEDING DAYS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING UP TO SATURDAY, THE REGION MAY BE MORE
SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
..EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
A MID-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DIRECT A PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS ~1.5 INCHES) TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, WHICH
COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENCOMPASSES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ROUGHLY FROM JACKSONVILLE TO MIAMI, WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOCUSING ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE
SLIGHT RISK OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WAS REMOVED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO SLOWER TIMING OF THIS EVENT. THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE DOWN THE FLORIDA EAST COAST, BUT
THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY.
DOLAN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 25 2026 - 12Z MON OCT 26 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
..2030Z UPDATE
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SHRUNK SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM INHERITED WITH THIS UPDATE. IN A FAIRLY COMMON PATTERN IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LEVELS IS
ADVANCING SLOWER THAN PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS SHIFTED EVERYTHING WEST,
LEAVING THE AREA AHEAD OF MUCH OF THE RAIN SHIELD FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH LITTLE FORECASTED RAIN,
RESULTING IN MOST OF THE TRIMMING OF THE SLIGHT ON THE EASTERN END.
WHILE A SLOWER PROGRESSION USUALLY MEANS A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME OF
HEAVIER RAIN OVER ALREADY HARD-HIT AREAS, IN THIS CASE THE CORRIDOR
OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS NARROW ENOUGH AND PROGRESSES JUST FAR ENOUGH
EAST FROM PRIOR DAYS TO STILL SOMEWHAT THE FLOODING THREAT. THAT
SAID, RIVERS AND LARGER STEM RIVER BASINS MAY STILL SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SINCE PRIOR DAYS' RAINS WILL FLOW DOWNSTREAM
INTO AREAS HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY, SO IN THAT REGARD, THE
FLOODING THREAT IS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD BE.
MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY DRY RECENTLY, SO SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS FROM NASA SPORT
IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA AROUND THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOAM SOILS EFFECTIVELY ABSORB AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS
REASON, THE RISK AREAS ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE,
WHILE FAR LESS-SO FURTHER WEST INTO CO AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WHERE
SOILS ARE VERY SATURATED.
ONCE AGAIN AS ON DAY 2/SATURDAY, NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE ON THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH A STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUING. WITH THE FLOW BEING A RATHER UNUSUAL ONE FOR A
LONG PERIOD OF TIME, AND THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION NOT A TYPICAL
TROPICAL WIND DIRECTION, THE FLOODING THREAT IS QUITE CONDITIONAL.
IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE TOO
FAR INLAND ONCE REACHING THE COAST, SO THE I-95 CORRIDOR REMAINS
TARGETED.
WEGMAN
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ON SUNDAY, TRACKING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE TO 1.3-1.5 INCHES. THOUGH THE
INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAN ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS OVERALL. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH SOME
DIVERGENCE IN THE TOTAL AMOUNTS. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
REACH 1-3 INCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS REGION.
..SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
THE MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DIRECTING ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD STALL SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING PWATS RISING UP TO 1.5-2 INCHES IN EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY
FOCUS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
MIAMI. WITH A SLOW-MOVING FIRE HOSE OF MOISTURE AIMED AT SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN FOR URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
EFFECT.
DOLAN
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z MON OCT 26 2026 - 12Z WED OCT 28 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
MONDAY...
20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MARGINAL RISK WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION ON MONDAY. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A LESS ACTIVE DAY THAN
SUNDAY, HOWEVER WILL STILL HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION AS WELL AS AN UPPER JET TO THE NORTH PROVIDING SOME RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT. PW ANOMALIES ARE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT STILL AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE, TO GO ALONG WITH 500-1500 J/KG OF CAPE (HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TX). THUS IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OK. GLOBAL MODEL QPFS ARE PRETTY MODEST, BUT GIVEN THE
INGREDIENTS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS ONCE
WE GET INTO THE TIMEFRAME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FL
COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD REGARDING
THE MAGNITUDE OF PWS ON THESE DAYS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE A
DETERMINING FACTOR IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE
00Z ECMWF IS NOTABLY HIGHER WITH MOISTURE AND QPF THAN MOST OTHER
MODELS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY (DAY 4). LOW CONFIDENCE ON THESE
DETAILS AT THIS LEAD TIME, BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THESE HIGHER PWS MATERIALIZE AND CELLS
ANCHOR ALONG THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN INCREASED SPREAD
BY DAY 5 WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A MARGINAL FOR TUESDAY, AND CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS.
CHENARD
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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