783
FXUS21 KWNC 051935
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 05 2023
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) DURING WEEK-2, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE
REGION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY IN WEEK-2 MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR UNSEASONABLY WET
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. SNOWMELT SEASON CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST AFTER EXCEPTIONAL WINTER ACCUMULATIONS, LEADING TO THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, WHILE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDWEST RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD).
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, TUE-THU, JUN 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.,
THU-MON, JUN 15-19.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, UTAH, WYOMING, AND IDAHO.
POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JUNE 08 - MONDAY JUNE 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JUNE 13 - MONDAY JUNE 19: ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS,
ECMWF, AND CMCE ALL DEPICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
WEEK-2. THIS FAVORS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS. REFORECAST-BASED EXTREMES FORECAST TOOLS FROM ALL THREE
ENSEMBLES LISTED ABOVE INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% PROBABILITY OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 95F FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR JUN 15-19, THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT IS POSTED FOR THE REGION.
EARLY IN WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY WEAKENS, BUT NOT
BEFORE POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY WET SPRING FOR PORTIONS FOR
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE REFORECAST EXTREMES TOOLS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS, AND
TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT THE CMCE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST A HALF INCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN FOR JUN 13-15, THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED
FOR THE REGION.
DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AS THE
HEAT OF SUMMER BUILDS AND A PERSISTENCE OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR ROD INITIALLY HIGHLIGHTED OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CORN BELT HAS BEEN SPREADING EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD, WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN THE REGION AND ONLY NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING WEEK-2.
SNOWMELT SEASON CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AFTER ACCUMULATING A VERY
LARGE AND IN SOME CASES RECORD-BREAKING SNOWPACK, INDUCING RIVER FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SOME AREAS IN THE WEST, WHERE A FEW
SITES STILL REPORT OVER 40 INCHES OF SNOW WATER CONTENT. AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES
IN PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG MANY RIVERS, AND IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO RECEDE DUE TO SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY FLAT TOPOGRAPHY.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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