806
FXUS21 KWNC 012055
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 01 2024
SYNOPSIS: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE 50 UNITED
STATES DURING THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK PERIOD. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS PREDICTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER-RELATED
HAZARDS. STORMINESS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEST, WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA, WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT KONA LOW IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REGION COVERED BY THE
SLIGHT RISK IN THE VERY NEXT BULLET, TUE-FRI, JAN 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION INCLUDING MOST OF FLORIDA, THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE, AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND, TUE-FRI, JAN 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, TUE-MON, JAN 9-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, TUE-FRI, JAN 9-12.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TO LOWER
MICHIGAN, TUE-THU, JAN 9-11.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, TUE-THU,
JAN 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, TUE-THU, JAN 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE ROCKIES, WASATCH, AND MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, TUE-FRI, JAN 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, KLAMATH/SISKIYOU AND NORTHERN
SIERRA MOUNTAINS, TUE-MON, JAN 9-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF THE CONUS THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN, THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND NEAR THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, VALID JAN 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM JAN
9-13.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 04 - MONDAY JANUARY 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 09 - MONDAY JANUARY 15: A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS PREDICTED
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY A VARIETY OF WEATHER-RELATED HAZARDS. THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA, WHILE A SECONDARY CENTER MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SLIGHT (20%) AND EMBEDDED MODERATE (40%) RISKS FOR HEAVY
RAIN (1.0-1.5 INCHES, LOCALLY GREATER) ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES, JAN 9-12. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET). STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STORM’S WARM
SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PREDICTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED 5-10 INCHES (OR MORE) OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 30-DAYS, AS
INDICATED BY THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (AHPS). SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS ALSO FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXPECTED DEFORMATION ZONE AND ENHANCED SNOW BANDING GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, JAN 9-11. THIS GENERALLY ALIGNS WITH
FORECASTS FROM DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL. AN EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK
OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TO LOWER MICHIGAN,
JAN 9-11. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW NOTED PREVIOUSLY EXTENDS EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK AREA
FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO INTERIOR MAINE. BOTH AREAS ARE VALID JAN 9-11. THE I-95
CORRIDOR CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME SNOW FROM THIS MAJOR STORM SYSTEM, BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CERTAINTY THAN FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE
POSTED SNOW AREAS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (AT LEAST 20 MPH) IS POSTED FOR A BROAD SWATH OF THE
CONUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND
NEAR THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, VALID JAN 9-12. THESE WIND SHAPES
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PET TOOL.
AS THE MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES OFFSHORE, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, ENHANCING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RECEIVED
FROM THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ANTICIPATED MAJOR CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS, PROLONGING PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN WEEK-2, IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
OFF THE WEST COAST, A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THOUGH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW HAZARDS ARE POSTED ON TODAY’S MAP
IN THE WEST, THESE HAZARDS ARE MARGINAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (1.5-2.0 INCHES) AND FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA (1.0 INCH), JAN 9-15. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN THIS SAME AREA FROM JAN 9-15. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE ROCKIES, WASATCH, AND MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, JAN 9-12. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AREAS
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE HAZARDS MAP IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION AND SWE PET
TOOLS.
PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF HIGH WINDS (AT LEAST 40 MPH) OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FROM JAN 9-13. NO PRECIPITATION HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
WEST OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE TROPICS AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT KONA LOW NEAR HAWAII EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL (AT LEAST AN INCH) AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. MUCH OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS INDICATED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, AS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE PET
TOOL.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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