751
FXUS21 KWNC 022156
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 02 2024
SYNOPSIS: A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
DURING THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK PERIOD. AT THE START OF WEEK-2, A MAJOR WINTER STORM
IS PREDICTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD, ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDE VARIETY OF
WEATHER-RELATED HAZARDS. A NEW AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. STORMINESS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE WEST, WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE
ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST, WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCER IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WED-SUN, JAN 10-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA, WED-TUE, JAN 10-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST, FRI-SUN, JAN 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, WED, JAN 10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION INCLUDING FLORIDA, THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE, SOUTHERN KENTUCKY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, WED-SUN, JAN 10-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, FRI-TUE, JAN 12-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WED-THU, JAN 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WED-THU, JAN
10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE ROCKIES, WASATCH, AND MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, WED-SUN, JAN 10-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, KLAMATH/SISKIYOU AND SIERRA
MOUNTAINS, FRI-TUE, JAN 12-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
JERSEY, NEW YORK, AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND, WED-THU, JAN 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, UPPER OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST COAST, WED-FRI, JAN 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WED-SAT, JAN 10-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WED-SAT, JAN 10-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST FROM WED-SUN, JAN 10-14.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 05 - TUESDAY JANUARY 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 10 - TUESDAY JANUARY 16: A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, WED, JAN 10. AS
SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WED-THU, JAN
10-11. IN ADDITION, ANTICIPATED BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK
OF HIGH WINDS (20 MPH+) ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, UPPER OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST COAST, WED-FRI, JAN 10-12. WITHIN THIS
SLIGHT RISK AREA, A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE
SAME REGION, WED-THU, JAN 10-11. THIS IS BASED ON THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET) FOR WIND HAZARDS, AND BY THE EXPECTED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE MAJOR WINTER STORM. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM IS PREDICTED TO HANG BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A NEW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. AT LEAST AN INCH
OF RAIN IS FORECAST BY THE PRECIPITATION PET TOOL. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION INCLUDING FLORIDA, THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE, SOUTHERN KENTUCKY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, WED-SUN, JAN 10-14. A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST, FRI-SUN,
JAN 12-14.
PRIOR TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.
AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST HAS EXPERIENCED PRECIPITATION SURPLUSES OF 5-10
INCHES (OR GREATER) DURING THE PAST 30-DAYS, THE EXPECTED RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW
PREDICTED TO BE ALREADY DEPOSITED, IN ADDITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE STORM’S WARM SECTOR, WARRANT A POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK FOR
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
HAZARDS INDICATED. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, AND
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WED-SUN, JAN 10-14. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO, WITH EVEN COLDER WIND-CHILL
VALUES. FARTHER SOUTH, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
WED-TUE, JAN 10-16. THESE HAZARDS ARE BASED LARGELY ON THE TEMPERATURE PET
TOOL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS SOUTHERN RISK IS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRST FREEZE
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. ADDITIONAL HAZARDS INCLUDE SLIGHT RISKS FOR HEAVY
SNOW FOR THE ROCKIES, WASATCH, AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, WED-SUN,
JAN 10-14, AND FOR THE CASCADES, KLAMATH/SISKIYOU AND SIERRA MOUNTAINS,
FRI-TUE, JAN 12-16. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DEPICTED FOR THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, WED-SAT, JAN 10-13, AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND WESTERN
NEVADA, WED-SAT, JAN 10-13. IN ADDITION, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS POSTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI-TUE, JAN
12-16.
IN ALASKA, PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (40 MPH+) FOR THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST FROM WED-SUN, JAN 10-14.
IN HAWAII, SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE DEEP TROPICS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WED-THU, JAN
10-11. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MAY REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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