805
FXUS21 KWNC 011915
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 01 2024
SYNOPSIS: FOLLOWING A WET AND STORMY START TO FEBRUARY ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST, A DRYING TREND IS LIKELY BY FEBRUARY 10 AND 11. THIS DRIER
PATTERN IS RELATED TO A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A PAIR
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. FROM FEBRUARY 9 TO 15. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
MAJOR WARMING TREND ACROSS ALASKA. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA EAST TO YAKUTAT DURING MID-FEBRUARY.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI, FEB 9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST, FRI-SAT, FEB 9-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, FRI-SUN, FEB 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI, FEB 9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, EASTERN TEXAS,
MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, FRI-SUN, FEB 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR KODIAK ISLAND, THE KENAI PENINSULA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, FRI-THU, FEB 9-15
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 04 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 09 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 15: MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THAT A DRYING TREND IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE WEST BY MID-FEBRUARY
AS A 500-HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON THIS EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN,
GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS), AND UNCALIBRATED 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS, THE MODERATE
RISKS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW ARE DISCONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE GEFS FAVORS A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH FEBRUARY 9 AND ITS PET SUPPORTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PET SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH
FEB 10. THE OVERALL SIGNAL FOR HIGH WINDS DECREASED TODAY AS LEESIDE
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST PRIOR TO WEEK-2. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
IS POSTED FROM FEB 9-11 AS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FEB 9. TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE PREDICTED SURFACE LOW TRACK, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON UNCALIBRATED
24-HOUR AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALONG WITH THE GEFS
AND ECMWF PETS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS
FROM FEBRUARY 9-11. MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-FEBRUARY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO:
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (1 TO 3 INCHES) DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND FAVORED WETNESS
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AND MEAN SURFACE LOW OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA AND BASED
ON THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
KODIAK ISLAND, THE KENAI PENINSULA, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY, THE PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS VALID THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE HEAVIEST DAILY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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