364
FXUS21 KWNC 021905
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 02 2024
SYNOPSIS: FOLLOWING A WET AND STORMY START TO FEBRUARY ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST, A DRYING TREND IS LIKELY BY MID-FEBRUARY. THIS DRIER PATTERN IS
RELATED TO BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEAST FROM FEBRUARY 10 TO 12. DURING MID-FEBRUARY MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO, SAT, FEB 10.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST, SAT-SUN, FEB 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, SAT-SUN, FEB 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, EASTERN TEXAS,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
SAT-MON, FEB 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR KODIAK ISLAND, THE KENAI PENINSULA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, SAT-FRI, FEB 10-16.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 05 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 10 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 16: THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING
500-HPA RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BRING A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN TO THE WEST DURING MID-FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RETURN OF A WETTER PATTERN TO CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST DURING LATE FEBRUARY.
ON FEBRUARY 10, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS (FEBRUARY 10-11) DUE TO THE EASTWARD TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS IT
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
FROM FEBRUARY 10 TO 12. THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS BASED ON THE
GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ALONG WITH UNCALIBRATED
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS.
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY, THE LARGE-SCALE FLOODING HAZARD WAS DISCONTINUED
TODAY AS CURRENT FLOODING IS FORECAST TO RECEDE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AND THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS SURFACE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE GEFS PET
SUPPORTS THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST ON FEBRUARY 10 AND 11. THE
TEMPERATURE HAZARD IS DESIGNATED FOR AREAS WHERE THE GEFS PET DEPICTS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVING AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW THE 15TH
PERCENTILE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION AND ALSO SUBFREEZING.
THE 7-DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT AND SURFACE PATTERNS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN ALASKA. BASED ON
THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
KODIAK ISLAND, THE KENAI PENINSULA, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND IS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO OCCUR FROM FEBRUARY 13 TO 16. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE WARRANTED ON THE FEBRUARY 5TH OUTLOOK.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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