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FXUS21 KWNC 011838
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 01 2024
SYNOPSIS: A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO
EARLY WEEK-2, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THIS SYSTEM AND A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO FORM LATER IN THE PERIOD SUPPORT INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST IS FAVORED TO BRING
ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2, AS WELL AS HEAVY SNOW ACROSS HIGH ELEVATION AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, SAT, MAR 9.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SAT-TUE, MAR 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, SAT-TUE, MAR 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST,
SAT-TUE, MAR 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ARIZONA, SUN-TUE, MAR 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, SAT-THU, MAR 9-14.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MARCH 04 - FRIDAY MARCH 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 09 - FRIDAY MARCH 15: MULTIPLE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT
THE END OF WEEK-1 TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. THIS
STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MAY SUPPORT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, MAR 9,
WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE
INCH. MOST OF THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON DAY 8 (MAR 9),
AS SUPPORTED BY DAILY UNCALIBRATED MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ANTICIPATED PATTERN.
ACROSS THE WEST, MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THERE ARE
SLIGHTLY DECREASED PROBABILITIES IN BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS OF INTEGRATED
VAPORS TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/MS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH
THE GEFS SHOWING GREATER CHANCES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA DURING THE EARLIER PART OF WEEK-2. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS
TRANSLATES TO THE GEFS PET HAVING STRONGER HEAVY PRECIPITATION SIGNALS THAN THE
ECENS. THE GEFS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA (2 INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS COASTAL NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SIERRA NEVADA), WHEREAS THE ECENS COUNTERPART LIMITS THIS SIGNAL TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND LESS THAN 30%. A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND COASTAL AREAS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MAR 9-12, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ARE
CONTINUED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST, MAR 9-12.
A SERIES OF SURFACE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE WEST MAY BRING ENHANCED SNOW TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND. A BROAD AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ARIZONA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW, MAR 10-12. THE GEFS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND HALF AN INCH (ONE INCH,
LOCALLY) WHERE THIS RISK IS DESIGNATED.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MAY FORM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN, MAR 9-14.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DURING WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SUPPORTS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND EXCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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