026
FXUS21 KWNC 041856
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 04 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN TO
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISKS FOR HEAVY SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST INITIALLY TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE TRACKING SURFACE LOWS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, TUE-THU, MAR 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, TUE-THU, MAR 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
THU-SAT, MAR 14-16.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 07 - MONDAY MARCH 11:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 12 - MONDAY MARCH 18: THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. THERE IS, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WITH THE ECENS FAVORING
IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE GEFS FURTHER INLAND BY DAY 8. THIS TRANSLATES TO
THE ECENS SHOWING GREATER CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE ONSET OF
WEEK-2, WHEREAS THE GEFS DOES NOT. DUE TO THESE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE ANTICIPATION THAT EVEN IF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEEK-2, IT
WOULD BE BRIEF, THE ASSOCIATED HAZARD RISKS ARE DISCONTINUED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK
FOR THE WEST COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, MAR 12-14, WHERE THE GEFS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY LIQUID
EQUIVALENT EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND HALF AN INCH (ONE INCH LOCALLY)
AND UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER TIME, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD (MAR 12-14). PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS MAY EXACERBATE WILDFIRE RISK
WHERE THERE ARE ALREADY ONGOING WILDFIRES, ESPECIALLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WHERE THERE IS A LARGE FIRE IN THE SMOKEHOUSE CREEK AREA THAT IS ONLY 15%
CONTAINED.
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (MAR 14-16). THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PETS
SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH.
FOR ALASKA, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING A TRANSITION IN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FROM TROUGHING ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2 TO RIDGING TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE
PREDICTED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE PETS FOR ANOMALOUS COLD
TO POTENTIALLY LINGER FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, WITH
DECREASING CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO COLD ARCTIC AIR RECEDING
NORTHWARD OVER TIME. DUE TO PETS NOT INDICATING TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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