251
FXUS21 KWNC 051930
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 05 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST
TO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN INITIALLY SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISKS FOR HEAVY SNOW IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE RESULTANT FLOODING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WED-THU, MAR 13-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, WED-FRI, MAR 13-15.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES,
THU-FRI, MAR 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
THU-SAT, MAR 14-16.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 08 - TUESDAY MARCH 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 13 - TUESDAY MARCH 19: THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS, MAR 13-14, WHERE THE GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
HALF AN INCH (ONE INCH LOCALLY). THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL OF AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW (GREATEST TOTALS EXCEEDING 6
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES) FURTHER SUPPORTING THE HAZARD.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER TIME, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES FOR MAR
13-15. THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE GEFS PET IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SIGNAL
COMPARED TO THE ECENS AND TO YESTERDAY’S GUIDANCE. GUSTY WINDS MAY EXACERBATE
WILDFIRE RISK WHERE THERE ARE ALREADY ONGOING WILDFIRES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THERE IS A LARGE FIRE IN THE SMOKEHOUSE CREEK AREA THAT
IS ONLY 37% CONTAINED.
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
MAR 14-16. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PETS SHOWING AT LEAST
A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
ONE INCH. GOOD DAY TO DAY MODEL CONSISTENCY, MODEL, CONSENSUS, AND INCREASING
PROBABILITIES IN THE PETS SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, MAR 14-15. THE ECENS PET
SHOWS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, WHILE
THE GEFS COUNTERPART INDICATES THESE THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS
OF FLORIDA. A SLIGHTLY BROADER HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES AREAS
WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLES SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES AND TOTALS.
ANTECEDENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION PREDICTED DURING WEEK-1 ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER’S (WPC) COMBINED WITH EXPECTED HEAVY WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION
SUPPORTS A POSSIBLE FLOOD RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
POSSIBLE FLOOD RISK AREA IS DESIGNATED WHERE THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER’S (NWC)
EXPERIMENTAL FLOOD OUTLOOK INDICATES POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS DURING THE 4-7
DAY PERIOD AND WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO THE NATURE OF CONVECTION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST COAST ON DAYS 11-12 (MAR 16-17) DUE TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. THERE IS TOO MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO DESIGNATE AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD
AT THIS TIME IN THIS AREA BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
FOR ALASKA, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING A TRANSITION IN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FROM TROUGHING ACROSS THE STATE AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2
TO RIDGING LATER IN WEEK-2. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD, WHICH COULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE ECENS FAVORS A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GEFS
AND CANADIAN, INDICATING LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON DAY 8 (MAR 13). DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING IMPACTS, NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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