874
FXUS21 KWNC 221802
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 22 2024
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO GREAT LAKES,
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS TO THESE AREAS. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, SAT-SUN, MAR 30-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,
ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-TUE,
MAR 30-APR 2.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST
BIG BEND, AND NEW MEXICO, SAT-SUN, MAR 30-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-TUE, MAR 30-APR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST,
MON-TUE, APR 1-2.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MARCH 25 - FRIDAY MARCH 29:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 30 - FRIDAY APRIL 05: THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AT THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A STORM FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TRACKING TO
THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING INCREASED RISK OF HAZARDS TO THESE AREAS. THE
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW HAZARDS IN YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK FOR CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY TIME OUT BY THE START OF WEEK-2, THUS NO ASSOCIATED
HAZARDS ARE DESIGNATED TODAY.
A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MAR 30-APR 2. A SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GEFS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND HALF AN INCH
(ONE INCH, LOCALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ROCKIES). A MODERATE
RISK IS DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, MAR 30-31, WHERE THE GEFS PET INDICATES AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING THESE THRESHOLDS, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS
ENSEMBLE SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MODERATE RISK AREAS RECEIVING AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS,
UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MAR 30-APR 2,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACKING SURFACE LOW. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA
IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF WHERE THE ECENS WIND PET SHOWS AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH. A
MODERATE RISK IS DESIGNATED FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST BIG
BEND, AND NEW MEXICO, MAR 30-31, WHERE THE GEFS PET SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED
THRESHOLDS IN ADDITION TO WHERE THE ECENS PET SHOWS WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 25
MPH. ANTICIPATED HIGH WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR
WEEK-2 COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT INCREASED RISK OF
WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA POSTED WITH A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUED FOR PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, APR 1-2, AS SUPPORTED BY PETS SHOWING 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH, AND THE
UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF DAILY TOTALS
EXCEEDING ONE INCH.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF
ALASKA, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO SOUTHERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA PRECLUDING
THE DESIGNATION OF HAZARDS FOR ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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