703
FXUS21 KWNC 251804
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 25 2024
SYNOPSIS: A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS STORM MAY BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AND HIGH WINDS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. A TRAILING FRONT, IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
FORMATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN WEEK-2. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS
PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST MAY SUPPORT EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, TUE-THU, APR
2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, TUE-THU, APR 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
TUE-THU, APR 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, FRI-MON,
APR 5-8.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 28 - MONDAY APRIL 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 02 - MONDAY APRIL 08: MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET OF
WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORS A LESS AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GEFS AND CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND GENERALLY LOWER CHANCES OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THESE AREAS.
GIVEN HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY, A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS DESIGNATED FOR APR 2-4. THE
GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) EXCEEDING THE TOP 15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA, AND EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
SOME RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW EXTENDING TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO EXTEND THE
HEAVY SNOW HAZARD FURTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. THIS STORM MAY ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, APR 2-4.
A TRAILING FRONT COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAY BRING CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE FORMATION
OF A SURFACE LOW, WITH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE CORRESPONDING MID-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN DYNAMICAL MODELS. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, APR 2-4,
WHERE THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN PETS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING 3-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH.
ACROSS THE WEST, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST
AND SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. TODAY’S ENSEMBLE
MEANS FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST, DECREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND PRECIPITATION REACHING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. THERE IS HOWEVER
A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS DESIGNATED FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST, APR 5-8, ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS POTENTIALLY
FORMING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY
FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WESTERN TEXAS, , AND EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THE END
OF WEEK-1. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING WEEK-1 COMBINED
WITH INCREASED HIGH WIND RISK MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK DURING WEEK-2
IN THESE REGIONS. THERE IS, HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THIS REGION, DECREASING THE CERTAINTY FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE RISK.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY HAVE HIGHER RISK OF WILDFIRES DEPENDING ON WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS DURING WEEK-2.
FOR ALASKA, THE MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ZONAL, WITH
POTENTIALLY POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER
THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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