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FXUS21 KWNC 261756
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 26 2024
SYNOPSIS: A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
HIGH WINDS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST MAY SUPPORT EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS FROM
THIS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, WED-FRI, APR 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WED-FRI, APR 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST,
FRI-TUE, APR 5-9.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 29 - TUESDAY APRIL 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 03 - TUESDAY APRIL 09: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE, ORIENTATION, AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THE STRONGEST
TROUGHING COMPARED TO THE ECENS AND CMCE, THAT WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE TO
IMPACTFUL HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
IN GENERAL, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2, IN
ADDITION TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ACROSS MODELS AND MODEL RUNS REGARDING TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF THE TRACKING SURFACE LOW AND EVOLUTION.
GIVEN HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY, A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, APR 3-5. THE THE GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET)
INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE
APPALACHIANS, SUPPORTING THE INCLUSION OF THE APPALACHIANS IN TODAY’S HEAVY
SNOW RISK. UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS 3-DAY SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 INCHES OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES OVER
MAINE. THIS STORM MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, APR 3-5. THE MAJORITY OF
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR PRIOR TO WEEK-2, THUS NO ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS DESIGNATED IN TODAY’S
OUTLOOK.
ACROSS THE WEST, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST AND SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A STRONGER TROUGH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WHICH
FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE
GEFS FAVORS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH TRANSLATING TO THE GEFS SWE PET SHOWING
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SWE TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE
INCH. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBILITY IN ADDITION TO THE UNCALIBRATED DAILY GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS. DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY, A
HEAVY SNOW HAZARD IS NOT POSTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA.
THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY SUPPORTS HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGER SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED SIGNALS IN THE PETS FOR HIGH WINDS.
THEREFORE THE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST, APR 5-9.
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS DESIGNATED FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTERIOR WEST, HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, APR
5-9, ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS POTENTIALLY FORMING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (25 MPH, LOCALLY) ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. THE GEFS PET INDICATES THESE THRESHOLDS FOR NEVADA AND
THE SOUTHWEST. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF WEEK-1. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED DURING WEEK-1 COMBINED WITH INCREASED HIGH WIND RISK DURING WEEK-2
MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK IN THESE REGIONS. THERE IS, HOWEVER, ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION ALBEIT LOW PROBABILITIES,
DECREASING THE CERTAINTY FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE RISK. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY HAVE
HIGHER RISK OF WILDFIRES DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS DURING WEEK-2.
FOR ALASKA, THE MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ZONAL, WITH
POTENTIALLY POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER
THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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