105
FXUS21 KWNC 291812
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 29 2024
SYNOPSIS: AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MORE BROADLY, PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ROBUST TROUGH AND A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE
WEST. IN THE SOUTHEAST, RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
EXTENDING FROM MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW-PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGS CHANCES
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, SAT-TUE, APR 6-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST,
SAT-TUE, APR 6-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, SUN-THU, APR 7-11.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY APRIL 01 - FRIDAY APRIL 05:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 06 - FRIDAY APRIL 12: ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, AN AREA OF
NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE
PERIOD. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST, THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (25
MPH, LOCALLY) ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO
LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FINALLY, THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE
END OF WEEK-1. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED DURING WEEK-1 COMBINED
WITH INCREASED HIGH WIND RISK DURING WEEK-2 MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK
IN THESE REGIONS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR
THE GREAT PLAINS, INTERIOR WEST, AND SOUTHWEST, APR 6-9. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING EAST AND WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE
ECENS PET INDICATES PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A BROAD
AREA IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CORRESPONDINGLY, THE RAW ECENS INDICATES
30-40% CHANCES FOR SNOW TO EXCEED FOUR INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED
FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR APRIL 6-9.
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM THE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS DISCUSSED ABOVE MAY HELP TO INITIATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECENS PET AND RAW GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND THERE ARE STRONGER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO APPROACH AN INCH FURTHER NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RAW GEFS IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION NEAR
AND ALONG MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS, AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST FOR
APR 7-11.
FOR ALASKA, THE MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ZONAL, WITH
POTENTIALLY POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER
THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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