367
FXUS21 KWNC 011820
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 01 2024
SYNOPSIS: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE ONSET OF THE WEEK-2 FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MODELS DEPICT A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN, AND
CONSEQUENTLY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S., TUE-THU, APR 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., TUE-THU, APR 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
TUE-WED, APR 9-10.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 04 - MONDAY APRIL 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 09 - MONDAY APRIL 15: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. THIS FAVORS
MOIST INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 24-HR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH IS
FAVORED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS ENHANCED
CHANCES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR APR 9-11. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE AREAS AND TIME PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS FOR A SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS WELL-INDICATED
BY THE ECMWF WIND SPEED PET, WHICH SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% PROBABILITY OF WIND
SPEED EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 20MPH DURING THE FIRST THREE
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS IS POSTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO COVER APR 9-11.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS ALSO DEPICT ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM, AND COMBINING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN MARGIN OF THE ROCKIES, THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. UNCALIBRATED OUTPUT FROM THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 20% PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO, THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR APR 9-10.
IN THE COMING DAYS A LATE-SEASON NOR’EASTER IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COMBINATION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE FLOODING CONDITIONS IN AREAS WHERE SNOW RECEIVED IS THE
HIGHEST. NO HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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