043
FXUS21 KWNC 021832
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 02 2024
SYNOPSIS: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE ONSET OF THE WEEK-2 FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MODELS DEPICT A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN, AND
CONSEQUENTLY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, WED-THU, APR 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND SOUTHEAST, WED-THU, APR 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST, THU-FRI, APR 11-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
WED, APR 10.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 05 - TUESDAY APRIL 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 10 - TUESDAY APRIL 16: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. THIS FAVORS
MOIST INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 24-HR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH IS
FAVORED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
THE ECMWF AND GEFS PRECIPITATION PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW
ENHANCED CHANCES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO,
TENNESSEE, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR
APR 10-11. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE
AREAS AND TIME PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THIS IS WELL-INDICATED BY THE ECMWF PET, WHICH SHOWS AT LEAST A 20%
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 20MPH FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GEFS PET FOR HIGH
WINDS IS LESS BULLISH BUT STILL INDICATES ENHANCED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST. EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE FAST
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN QUESTION, SO TWO HAZARDS ARE POSTED:
THE FIRST COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE OHIO,
TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR APR 10-11, AND THE SECOND COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST
U.S. FOR APR 11-12.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS ALSO DEPICT ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM, AND COMBINING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN MARGIN OF THE ROCKIES, THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW CONFINE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WEEK-1, UNCALIBRATED OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A 20% PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO, THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR APR 10.
IN THE COMING DAYS A LATE-SEASON NOR’EASTER IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COMBINATION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE FLOODING CONDITIONS IN AREAS WHERE SNOW RECEIVED IS THE
HIGHEST. NO HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
IN ALASKA, DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKAN INTERIOR ARE FAVORED TO
BEGIN EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK, AND INCREASING INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
FLUXES INEVITABLY LEAD TO THE MELT-OFF OF THE WINTER’S SNOWPACK. RIVERS OF THE
INTERIOR ARE CURRENTLY FROZEN, BUT WITH THE IMPENDING BREAK-UP SEASON AND
INCREASING SNOWMELT, FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A CONCERN IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SITUATION WILL ALSO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WEEKS.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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