560   
FXUS21 KWNC 031737  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT APRIL 03 2024  
  
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS   
FAVORED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS FOR   
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE ONSET OF THE WEEK-2   
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A MORE   
TRANQUIL PATTERN, AND CONSEQUENTLY DECREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS   
WEATHER.  
  
HAZARDS  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND   
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST,   
THU-FRI, APR 11-12.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO   
VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, FRI-SAT, APR 12-13.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER AND   
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST,   
THU-FRI, APR 11-12.  
  
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,   
MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST, THU-SUN, APR 11-14.  
  
DETAILED SUMMARY  
  
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 06 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 10:   
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
  
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 11 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 17: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN   
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED   
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN   
FAVORS MOIST INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR   
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE   
24-HR PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE   
EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF AND GEFS PRECIPITATION PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS   
(PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A 20% PROBABILITY OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING   
THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH AT   
LEAST 1 INCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORED   
TO MOVE QUICKLY, THEREFORE TWO AREAS HIGHLIGHTING THE RISK OF HEAVY   
PRECIPITATION ARE POSTED: THE FIRST COVERS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND   
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST   
FOR APR 11-12, AND THE SECOND COVERS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,   
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST FOR APR 12-13.  
  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,   
BRINGING THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND   
EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS WELL-INDICATED BY THE ECMWF PET, WHICH SHOWS AT LEAST A   
20% PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 20   
MPH FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GEFS PET FOR   
HIGH WINDS IS LESS BULLISH BUT STILL INDICATES ENHANCED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS   
FOR THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE FAST   
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN QUESTION, SO TWO HAZARDS ARE   
POSTED: THE FIRST COVERS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER AND MIDDIE   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.   
FOR APR 11-12, AND THE SECOND COVERING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,   
MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST U.S. FOR APR 11-14.  
  
A LATE-SEASON NOR’EASTER IS CURRENTLY BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW,   
POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, BY THE   
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE   
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE FLOODING   
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW RECEIVED IS THE HIGHEST. NO   
ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CAREFULLY   
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.  
  
IN ALASKA, DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKAN INTERIOR ARE FAVORED TO   
BEGIN EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK, AND INCREASING INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION   
FLUXES INEVITABLY LEAD TO THE MELT-OFF OF THE WINTER’S SNOWPACK. RIVERS OF THE   
INTERIOR ARE CURRENTLY FROZEN, BUT WITH THE IMPENDING BREAK-UP SEASON AND   
INCREASING SNOWMELT, FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A CONCERN IN THE NEAR   
FUTURE. NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SITUATION WILL ALSO BE   
CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WEEKS.  
  
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN   
  
  
 
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